Are We Stifling Debate on the Extent of Carbon Dioxide’s Role in Global Warming?
Should Japan embark on Co2 reduction negotiations without understanding the essence of the matter, it may end up squandering an enormous amount of its wealth for no purpose.
Published 3 days ago
on April 8, 2021
By Shohei Nagatsuji
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Global warming has become a global concern. United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has continued to pump out strong warnings if humanity would have no future unless we do something. The Japanese government, following Europe’s lead, has announced the target of net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050.
RELATED: EDITORIAL | Balance Environment and Economy in Setting Zero Greenhouse Gas Emissions Target
The United States has returned to the 2015 Paris Agreement on global warming, giving momentum to the movement for decarbonization. In the meantime, gas powered vehicles have been demonized as the source of all evil, reminiscent of the eve of an ominous energy revolution.
Looking back at the history of science, the most treacherous times were those in which it was difficult to express views contrary to a mainstream theory. In this case, it conjures up the absurdity of “Lysenkoism,” a scientific theory that was worshipped in the former Soviet Union in the 20th century.
Acedemician Trofim Lysenko, who was elected vice-chairman of the Soviet Union during the first session of the Supreme Soviet of the USSR in 1938. (Photo by: Sovfoto/Universal Images Group via Getty Images)---
Annihilating Differing Views
Trofim Lysenko (1898-1976) was a Soviet agricultural scientist. He argued that agricultural production could be massively enhanced by introducing his genetic theory of environmentally acquired inheritance that an individual organism’s acquired characteristics could be genetically transmitted to its offspring, in that case, the cultivation of wheat.
At the time, science was on the eve of elucidating the structure of genetics. Lysenko dismissed the orthodox principles of biological inheritance proffered by Gregor Mendel in the 19th century as “bourgeois genetics poisoned by capitalism,” and insisted instead that genetic properties changed based on interactions with the environment.
Lysenko’s peculiar genetic theory was approved of by Joseph Stalin, the dictator at the time. As a result, no Soviet biologists expressed a skeptical view of Lysenkoism, as it was the rage of the times. Critics of Lysenkoism were arrested and imprisoned. Far from questioning, “scientific” papers based on the ideas of Lysenko even began to appear.
Wheat production on collective farms that put Lysenkoism into practice did increase. However, that was simply because no negative response could be entered in questionnaires surveying the effects of the Lysenko theory. In experiments comparing conventional farming methods to Lysenkoism, plots of farmland with favorable conditions were recorded as using the Lysenko style of farming.
Lysenko reigned over the agronomics and biological studies community of the USSR from the mid-1930s, holding the position of director of the Institute of Genetics at the Soviet Academy of Sciences until 1965.
The wheat breeding method advocated by Lysenko asserted that seeds of autumn wheat would transform into spring wheat when exposed to low temperatures. In the light of today’s science, there is no genetic mechanism involved in the process, but the effects of the low temperatures cause the seeds of autumn wheat to sprout and bear fruit.
That method, however, had too many shortcomings, including a great deal of labor required for employing it in actual farming, and it ran counter to efforts for increasing productivity. Should farmers report according to the realities, they would certainly be accused of deficiency in their study of Lysenkoism.
Lysenko’s theory continued to linger under the Nikita Khrushchev administration. Although it had influence over biological studies in Japan for some time after World War II, it lost persuasiveness in the wake of the discovery of the double helix structure of DNA by molecular biologist James Watson and his colleagues in 1953.
Totalitarianism in Research
We should be concerned that the problem of global warming is being subjected to the same type of hazards posed by Lysenkoism.
Reports released by the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) about every five years warn that GHGs such as carbon dioxide (CO2) are exacerbating the crisis of the Earth’s warming. The call for “saving the irreplaceable Earth” has tremendous appeal.
The situation becomes precarious when people simply follow each other, chanting the same slogan driven by emotion. We should not forget that the Earth’s temperatures have been fluctuating naturally on a greater and lesser scale from time immemorial. In the planetary near past, Earth entered a cold phase from around the year of 1400, but then began a recovery period from around 1800, with the present age midway through the warming era.
As a result, the Earth’s average temperatures have been gently on the rise. The change amounts to about 0.7 degrees centigrade per 100 years, which the IPCC and other organizations claim is due to CO2 and other GHGs.
However, it was after the end of World War II that CO2 in the atmosphere began increasing. Nevertheless, global temperatures have been rising since before the war. This simple fact alone brings the reasoning behind making CO2 the culprit for global warming into question.
It is true that CO2 has the effect of warming the Earth, but many researchers say its impacts are substantially small. Instead, natural, geophysical fluctuations are largely responsible for global warming.
The theory naming CO2 as the major menace causing global warming, however, reigns over society today, backed by the authority of the U.N. and the IPCC, and armed with global warming simulations worked out on supercomputers.
Researchers arguing against the dominant theory are ostracized and denied access to research funds. It becomes difficult to find acceptance of their academic papers by their peers, while younger researchers critical of the theory have a hard time finding jobs in the field.
As a result, the scientific community has become a vehicle for uniformly affirming the theory that CO2 is the menace. It is just a modern version of Lysenkoism.
“Decarbonization” is now the keyword driving the world’s industries, economy and politics.
Cuts in Co2 emissions are not very likely to curb the rise in global temperatures. Should Japan embark on Co2 reduction negotiations without understanding the essence of the matter, we will be tossed about in the struggle for political and economic hegemony by other international players, eventually finding we have squandered an enormous amount of our nation’s wealth for no purpose.
Top priority in the government’s budgetary allocations should be for measures designed to prevent and adapt to erratic climate-related disasters, including floods caused by temperature fluctuations and urbanization, landslides, and the urban heat-island phenomena.
Multiple perspectives should be welcomed in both the political and scientific environments. Soviet agriculture was debilitated by the lack of such an approach. History tells us that it is the collapse of the Soviet Union that followed.
(Find access to The Sankei Shimbun report in Japanese at this link.)
For more on this debate, see:
Push for ‘Zero CO2’ Emissions Threatens Japan’s Economy, Security
Japan Needs All Hands on Deck as It Starts ‘30-Year Race’ Towards Carbon Neutrality
Author: Shohei Nagatsuji
Annihilating Differing Views
Trofim Lysenko (1898-1976) was a Soviet agricultural scientist. He argued that agricultural production could be massively enhanced by introducing his genetic theory of environmentally acquired inheritance that an individual organism’s acquired characteristics could be genetically transmitted to its offspring, in that case, the cultivation of wheat.
At the time, science was on the eve of elucidating the structure of genetics. Lysenko dismissed the orthodox principles of biological inheritance proffered by Gregor Mendel in the 19th century as “bourgeois genetics poisoned by capitalism,” and insisted instead that genetic properties changed based on interactions with the environment.
Lysenko’s peculiar genetic theory was approved of by Joseph Stalin, the dictator at the time. As a result, no Soviet biologists expressed a skeptical view of Lysenkoism, as it was the rage of the times. Critics of Lysenkoism were arrested and imprisoned. Far from questioning, “scientific” papers based on the ideas of Lysenko even began to appear.
Wheat production on collective farms that put Lysenkoism into practice did increase. However, that was simply because no negative response could be entered in questionnaires surveying the effects of the Lysenko theory. In experiments comparing conventional farming methods to Lysenkoism, plots of farmland with favorable conditions were recorded as using the Lysenko style of farming.
Lysenko reigned over the agronomics and biological studies community of the USSR from the mid-1930s, holding the position of director of the Institute of Genetics at the Soviet Academy of Sciences until 1965.
The wheat breeding method advocated by Lysenko asserted that seeds of autumn wheat would transform into spring wheat when exposed to low temperatures. In the light of today’s science, there is no genetic mechanism involved in the process, but the effects of the low temperatures cause the seeds of autumn wheat to sprout and bear fruit.
That method, however, had too many shortcomings, including a great deal of labor required for employing it in actual farming, and it ran counter to efforts for increasing productivity. Should farmers report according to the realities, they would certainly be accused of deficiency in their study of Lysenkoism.
Lysenko’s theory continued to linger under the Nikita Khrushchev administration. Although it had influence over biological studies in Japan for some time after World War II, it lost persuasiveness in the wake of the discovery of the double helix structure of DNA by molecular biologist James Watson and his colleagues in 1953.
Totalitarianism in Research
We should be concerned that the problem of global warming is being subjected to the same type of hazards posed by Lysenkoism.
Reports released by the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) about every five years warn that GHGs such as carbon dioxide (CO2) are exacerbating the crisis of the Earth’s warming. The call for “saving the irreplaceable Earth” has tremendous appeal.
The situation becomes precarious when people simply follow each other, chanting the same slogan driven by emotion. We should not forget that the Earth’s temperatures have been fluctuating naturally on a greater and lesser scale from time immemorial. In the planetary near past, Earth entered a cold phase from around the year of 1400, but then began a recovery period from around 1800, with the present age midway through the warming era.
As a result, the Earth’s average temperatures have been gently on the rise. The change amounts to about 0.7 degrees centigrade per 100 years, which the IPCC and other organizations claim is due to CO2 and other GHGs.
However, it was after the end of World War II that CO2 in the atmosphere began increasing. Nevertheless, global temperatures have been rising since before the war. This simple fact alone brings the reasoning behind making CO2 the culprit for global warming into question.
It is true that CO2 has the effect of warming the Earth, but many researchers say its impacts are substantially small. Instead, natural, geophysical fluctuations are largely responsible for global warming.
The theory naming CO2 as the major menace causing global warming, however, reigns over society today, backed by the authority of the U.N. and the IPCC, and armed with global warming simulations worked out on supercomputers.
Researchers arguing against the dominant theory are ostracized and denied access to research funds. It becomes difficult to find acceptance of their academic papers by their peers, while younger researchers critical of the theory have a hard time finding jobs in the field.
As a result, the scientific community has become a vehicle for uniformly affirming the theory that CO2 is the menace. It is just a modern version of Lysenkoism.
“Decarbonization” is now the keyword driving the world’s industries, economy and politics.
Cuts in Co2 emissions are not very likely to curb the rise in global temperatures. Should Japan embark on Co2 reduction negotiations without understanding the essence of the matter, we will be tossed about in the struggle for political and economic hegemony by other international players, eventually finding we have squandered an enormous amount of our nation’s wealth for no purpose.
Top priority in the government’s budgetary allocations should be for measures designed to prevent and adapt to erratic climate-related disasters, including floods caused by temperature fluctuations and urbanization, landslides, and the urban heat-island phenomena.
Multiple perspectives should be welcomed in both the political and scientific environments. Soviet agriculture was debilitated by the lack of such an approach. History tells us that it is the collapse of the Soviet Union that followed.
(Find access to The Sankei Shimbun report in Japanese at this link.)
長辻象平 ルイセンコの悪夢 今、地球温暖化問題で再び
202103
ソ連の農学系生物学者、トロフィム・ルイセンコ。正統的な遺伝学を否定し、特異な遺伝理論を小麦の生産に導入した （ゲッティ＝共同）
温暖化が地球規模の関心事になっている。国連のグテレス事務総長も人類の未来はないと言わんばかりの強い警告を発し続ける。日本政府も欧州諸国に倣って２０５０年の温室効果ガス（ＧＨＧ）排出実質ゼロを表明した。米国も「パリ協定」に復帰して脱炭素の動きは一段と勢いを増している。ガソリン車などが悪の根源として粛清されそうな雲行きは不穏なエネルギー革命前夜を思わせる。
科学の歴史を顧みると主流の説に異論を唱えにくい状況が最も危うい。２０世紀のソ連で信奉された「ルイセンコ理論」の不条理が思い起こされる。
For more on this debate, see:
Push for ‘Zero CO2’ Emissions Threatens Japan’s Economy, Security
Japan Needs All Hands on Deck as It Starts ‘30-Year Race’ Towards Carbon Neutrality
Author: Shohei Nagatsuji
===
ＣＯ２ゼロ」は亡国の危機だ キヤノングローバル戦略研究所研究主幹・杉山大志
2021.1.27
従前は地球温暖化問題といえば環境の関係者だけに限られたマイナーな話題にすぎなかった。だがここ２、３年で一変した。急進化した環境運動が日米欧の政治を
Push for ‘Zero CO2’ Emissions Threatens Japan’s Economy, Security
The large number of Chinese products connected to the power grids of several countries will allow more opportunities for cyber attacks.
Taishi SugiyamaPublished 2 months ago on February 16, 2021By Taishi SugiyamaHurricane Laura, August 2020 (the image from ISS, photo by NASA)
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The issue of global warming was previously a minor topic discussed only among people concerned with the environment. However, over the past two to three years, the situation has drastically changed. The radicalized environmental movement has successfully taken over politics in Japan, the United States, and Europe.
The environmental movement has become a massive power that is weakening the free world, stirring the rise of China, and becoming a threat to Japan. I would like all of those involved in the nation’s economy and security issues to be aware of the severity of the matter.
So what exactly is happening?
The Pitfalls of Green Growth
On December 25, 2020, the government unveiled the “green growth strategy.” The plan is to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050, while balancing the economy and the environment.
There are existing policies that are in accordance with economic growth as long as the reductions are limited to some extent — for instance, propelling digitization, the development of new solar power technology, and the use of nuclear power.
However, the drastic aim to go completely carbon-free has a higher chance of demolishing the economy. The government says it will ban the conventional use of cheaper fossil fuels and mandate carbon capture and storage. Otherwise, it will be replaced by unstable renewable energy or cumbersome hydrogen energy.
The government predicts that this will result in economic benefits of some ¥90 trillion JPY (about $858 million USD) annually by 2030 and ¥190 trillion JPY (a little over $1.8 trillion USD) annually by 2050. But it is clearly a mistake to regard the astronomical costs involved as economic benefits.
Of course, huge investments in measures against global warming will generate sales for companies that were to take on such projects. However, this will weaken competitiveness among the majority of companies that bear the cost of their capital in the form of energy taxes, will put a burden on family budgets, and overall will deeply hurt the nation’s economy.
As a result of the aggressive promotion of solar energy generation, an annual ¥2.4 trillion JPY ($23 million USD) surcharge has now become a burden placed on the public.
Previously, the government claimed that this was part of the growth strategy and that it had economic benefits. If the same mistakes were to be made again, this time at a ¥100 trillion JPY (about $953 million USD) per year range, the collapse of the Japanese economy would be inevitable.
As the Biden administration has come to power in the United States, all the free nations are now aiming for zero CO2 emissions by 2050. It is China that is snickering over this development.
Main Weapon of China’s ‘Unrestricted Warfare’
China has also declared it will become carbon-neutral by 2060. This is also impossible to achieve. Yet, it is a wise strategy with several advantages.
First, China’s cooperation on CO2 can become a bargaining tool and reduce the international community’s involvement in serious issues such as human rights and territory disputes. This was also a trap that former United States President Barack Obama fell into.
Second, with China’s involvement, it will become harder for free nations to back out. Thus, their economies will decline.
Even with similar goals, the destructive force on the economies will be as different as night and day. This is because, although international environmental NGOs will exert their power, they loathe capitalism and will bring intense pressure upon businesses and governments in free nations. Simultaneously, they will praise the Chinese government and will not target Chinese companies.
A weakened Japan will become more susceptible to succumbing to China’s economic pressures, as its voice will be suppressed and its territories threatened.
Third, by bringing global warming to the table, China will succeed in making the divide within the U.S. an even more serious matter. In the United States, global warming is a partisan issue, and while the Democratic Party supports radical policies, the Republicans oppose them. Donald Trump is not an exception.
For China, securing a position as a carbon-neutral country not only serves its purpose by deflecting international pressure, but also has the advantage of weakening free nations and intensifying divisions within them. In other words, global warming has become a core weapon in China’s toolbox of “unrestricted warfare,” where the idea is to leverage public opinion to gain strategic advantage.
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In addition, China has the largest industries in the world for solar power, wind power, and electric vehicles. If free nations were to make huge investments, China will benefit greatly as the countries will become even more heavily dependent on Chinese supply chains. Furthermore, the large number of Chinese products connected to these countries’ power grids will also allow more opportunities for cyber attacks.
Patriots, Raise Your Voices
If carbon neutrality is aggressively pushed ahead, we will destroy the national economy and even endanger Japan’s freedom and security. Patriots must comprehend the severity of this concern and raise their voices.
RELATED: Japan Needs All Hands on Deck as It Starts ‘30-Year Race’ Towards Carbon Neutrality
(Find access to the original Seiron article in Japanese at this link.)
Author: Taishi Sugiyama, Research Director, The Canon Institute for Global Studies
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Japan Needs All Hands on Deck as It Starts ‘30-Year Race’ Towards Carbon Neutrality
The results of the decarbonization efforts will not only determine the global competitiveness of Japan’s companies, but will also make or break the power of our country.
Shunichi TakahashiPublished 3 months ago on January 19, 2021By Shunichi Takahashi
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Tokyo During COVID-19: Green Space, Rise of Telework Bring New Lifestyle Opportunities
When it comes to moving things forward, clear messages on policy must come from the top. There is an issue of late that has made me realize this even more.
That issue is the growing move towards decarbonization in Japan. In October 2020, Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga announced Japan’s “Carbon Neutral” policy of bringing greenhouse gas emissions, the cause of global warming, to net zero by 2050. Since then, both government and private sector sources have been releasing a steady stream of information on decarbonization.
The stage for these recent developments was set in July 2020. I believe that the announcement of the plan to decommission high-emitting aging coal-fired power plants by 2030 by Hiroshi Kajiyama, Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry, was a major influencing factor.
For a resource-poor country like Japan, coal is an important resource in terms of both the economy and energy security. It is low in price and widely distributed around the globe. The world’s confirmed reserves exceed 130 mineable years, and a stable supply can be expected over the long term.
Moreover, the political climate in most coal-producing countries is stable, with over half of Japan’s coal imported from Australia. And it was coal-fired power that allowed us to maintain our power supply after the Great East Japan Earthquake.
Although the announcement on phasing out coal-fired power was limited to aging and inefficient facilities, there is no doubt that many people realized the government was indeed getting serious.
The most important precondition for carbon neutrality is the reduction of CO2 emissions. Even the most state-of-the-art coal-fired power plants emit double the CO2 of liquid natural gas (LNG). So making advances in CO2 reduction is imperative, even at the coal-fired power plants not slated for decommissioning.
Alternatives to Coal-fired Power Plants
One method currently under examination involves an alternative use for ammonia, an ingredient in chemical fertilizers, that completely differs from its current use.
While hydrogen has garnered a lot of attention as a clean energy that emits no CO2 when burned, in fact ammonia can also be burned without emitting CO2. Ammonia has a slower combustion speed than hydrogen, making it more compatible to coal. Expectations are high that, if mixed with coal and used in existing facilities, carbon emissions can be reduced.
JERA, Japan’s largest power generation company and a joint venture for fuel procurement by Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings and Chubu Electric Power, is one company planning for the gradual increase of co-firing with ammonia in thermal power generation. Chubu Electric has been exploring options in co-firing since 2016 and is set to begin preparations for the refitting of its demonstration facility at the Hekinan Thermal Power Station (Hekinan City, Aichi Prefecture) as early as 2022. It’s aim is to begin demonstration tests in fiscal year 2023.
JERA’s plans start with a 20% ammonia co-firing rate. Reportedly no precedents exist anywhere in the world for co-firing large volumes of ammonia at large-scale commercial power plants.
“It is our mission to prepare the next technology that can be used at existing facilities,” says Mitsutaka Ban, executive officer and head of the research group at JERA’s Corporate Strategy Department. JERA has set its sights on generating power using ammonia alone 40 years from now.
Private-Public Cooperation Imperative
Very little headway has been made globally on the utilization of ammonia as a green energy option. While insufficient supply and other supply chain issues remain, the earlier the utilization technology can be established, the greater Japan’s chances of gaining an upper hand internationally in the export of the technology.
According to the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, a United Kingdom-based think tank, over 120 countries and regions, including Japan, have declared their intent to be carbon neutral by 2050. The world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter, China, also declared it would achieve the same by 2060.
In this context, any delay in the development and introduction of new environmental technologies will result in an inability to compete in the global market.
Major leaps forward in technology innovation will be required in many fields to realize carbon neutrality, including use of hydrogen and other new energies, improved performance of storage cells and recycling of CO2. As a matter of course, the development of new technologies requires large amounts of time and expense, making it problematic for any one company to meet the challenge alone.
At a press conference on December 17, Eiji Hashimoto, chairman of the Japan Iron and Steel Federation and president of Nippon Steel, made a forthright call for national government support, asserting that research and development would “take 10 or 20 years, making it impossible for any individual company to maintain.”
In an additional stimulus package put together in December, the government incorporated the establishment of a ¥2 trillion JPY fund to accelerate research and development in decarbonization. However, this plan will require both budgetary and tax system support moving forward.
With 2050 as the finish line for decarbonization, we now set off on a “30-year race.” This year will surely be the real start for Japanese companies. The results will not only determine the global competitiveness of Japan’s companies, but will also make or break the power of our country. The public and private sectors must work together as one to lead the world.
RELATED READ: Toward Zero Emissions: Working With Japan to Help Dehli’s Alarming Air Pollution
(Find access to the original article in Japanese at this link.)
Shunichi Takahashi, Editor-in-Chief, Fuji Sankei Business
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