2019/01/10

Countdown: Our Last Best Hope for a Future on Earth? by Alan Weisman | Goodreads

Countdown: Our Last Best Hope for a Future on Earth? by Alan Weisman | Goodreads



Countdown: Our Last Best Hope for a Future on Earth?

 4.15  ·   Rating details ·  1,039 ratings  ·  205 reviews
A powerful investigation into the chances for humanity's future from the author of the bestseller The World Without Us.

In his bestselling book The World Without Us, Alan Weisman considered how the Earth could heal and even refill empty niches if relieved of humanity's constant pressures. Behind that groundbreaking thought experiment was his hope that we would be inspired to find a way to add humans back to this vision of a restored, healthy planet--only in harmony, not mortal combat, with the rest of nature.

But with a million more of us every 4 days on a planet that's not getting any bigger, and with our exhaust overheating the atmosphere and altering the chemistry of the oceans, prospects for a sustainable human future seem ever more in doubt. For this long awaited follow-up book, Weisman traveled to more than 20 countries to ask what experts agreed were probably the most important questions on Earth--and also the hardest: How many humans can the planet hold without capsizing? How robust must the Earth's ecosystem be to assure our continued existence? Can we know which other species are essential to our survival? And, how might we actually arrive at a stable, optimum population, and design an economy to allow genuine prosperity without endless growth?

Weisman visits an extraordinary range of the world's cultures, religions, nationalities, tribes, and political systems to learn what in their beliefs, histories, liturgies, or current circumstances might suggest that sometimes it's in their own best interest to limit their growth. The result is a landmark work of reporting: devastating, urgent, and, ultimately, deeply hopeful.

By vividly detailing the burgeoning effects of our cumulative presence, Countdown reveals what may be the fastest, most acceptable, practical, and affordable way of returning our planet and our presence on it to balance. Weisman again shows that he is one of the most provocative journalists at work today, with a book whose message is so compelling that it will change how we see our lives and our destiny.
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Hardcover528 pages
Published September 24th 2013 by Little, Brown and Company (first published 2013)
Original Title
Countdown: Our Last Best Hope for a Future on Earth?
ISBN
0316097756 (ISBN13: 9780316097758)
Edition Language
English
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Ted
The most serious question in history. How can we humans go on?

4 1/2


Alan Weisman is a practicing and teaching journalist. He’s received several awards, and written five books, the most popular being the 2007 The World Without UsCountdown is Weisman’s attempt to bring humans back into the picture, by reporting on how the stresses being exerted on our planet could all be lessened by a single remedy – a lowering of the human birth rate, and eventually a lowering of the human population (without coercion) to a more sustainable level.

Nuts and bolts. Most of Weisman’s seventeen chapters are based on travel to a specific country, during which he interviewed people about a particular aspect of his overall theme – the effect of the world’s burgeoning human population on Nature, and on the natural processes of the planet. He also tells the stories of several eminent people who have been involved over the last several decades in various aspects of the population issue.

The book is divided into five Parts. The Parts have no titles, and it’s anyone’s guess what the different Parts represent. Likely there’s a thematic connection, or maybe an organizational/narrative similarity, between the chapters in these parts, but I doubt that it’s important for the reader.

The book contains what can only be described as an extreme bibliography. Starting with a couple pages of “General book citations”, it then lays out from 2 to 7 pages of books and articles for each chapter. This bibliography makes the book very useful (thumbs up, TU), but the total lack of footnotesin the book makes it impossible to know where any particular fact or quote comes from (thumbs down, TD).

The book’s index is pretty detailed and useful (TU).

Description. Here, some details from the book. (view spoiler)

General comments

One problem I had with the book was what might be called the wandering narrative. Maybe it’s just me, but I expect to see in a non-fiction book chapters which have definite topics, and focus on some part of an overall argument or presentation. Weisman’s style of organizing things is hard to actually penetrate (TD), though he does seem to realize this and provides a bit of help by giving sections of each chapter their own somewhat cryptic sub-headings.

For example, in chapter 15 (Parkland Earth) the headings are i. The Oxymoron; ii. The Chemistry Set; and iii. Whither Termination. Enigmatic? You bet. But once you read the chapter, they do provide something of a roadmap to the narrative’s drift. (TU?)

Most of the chapters include journalistic material from interviews which Weisman conducted. Many of these are with experts or policy wonks who supply general insight into the current topic. But many too are with more ordinary people. Though the views of individuals obviously lend an anecdotal tinge to the writing, in illustrating the larger issues from individual perspectives they do make them come alive, in a way that a more high-level, academic overview generally cannot do. (TU)

General message of the book.

Weisman clearly perceives the earth is overpopulated. I agree. He clearly believes that the earth and humanity are facing tremendous problems in the coming decades: global warming, food shortages, rising sea levels, degrading ecosystems, peak oil, falling water tables, possibly severe fresh water shortages in some parts of the world. All of these challenges would be made less formidable if humanity could level off its population and then start to decrease it.

What population seems to be a sustainable number? Weisman mentions several times a number that was introduced in 1993 at the First World Optimum Population Conference: 2 billion (92-3). This is about the population of the earth in 1930, “when the Haber-Bosch process (of industrial nitrogen fixation to produce ammonia for fertilizer) became commercially available world-wide.” At that time “nearly everyone on Earth was living off plants growing on sunlight, not fossil fuel.” (view spoiler)

A declining human population can come about in two ways: either by humans proactively having fewer children, or by disease, war and famine reactively reducing our numbers.

Similarly, proactive behavior could take the form of individual choice (with possible encouragement or reward by the state)or state mandated programmes. China’s one-child policy is the well-known example of the latter; Weisman explores examples of the former in several countries (Costa Rica, the Philippines, Iran, Thailand). While I do not share Weisman’s apparent moral outrage at the Chinese policy (which seems to have been somewhat victimized by Western propaganda, based on what Weisman reports in the book), there is no doubt that individual choice is preferable.

Time and again Weisman reports that in countries where the state has decided to promote and encourage lower birth rates, provide family planning services, and assure that contraceptive means are available to women, birth rates drop, often dramatically. Empowerment and education of women is often the only other thing necessary. Women understand that fewer children means a better life for the family, as well as for those children.

In his Epilogue, which should certainly be read, Weisman points out that were the entire human population of Earth to start today on a “one child is enough” course, by the end of the century we would be back to 1.6 billion. On our current trajectory 10 billion is where we’re headed. (415)

This is an important book, well worth reading despite some flaws.
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Caroline
Jul 07, 2014rated it it was amazing
Shelves: 5-star-booksecology
.

A marvellous investigation of the world's populations, and the resources available to us. Before reading this I had a rather woolly idea that the world was over-populated, and that we were over-consuming our resources - but the reality is much more complex than that, and the situations vary strongly from country to country. I haven't changed my opinion, but it has been bolstered by a wealth of fascinating information. Also Weisman doesn't only tackle countries with growing populations, but also countries with shrinking populations, and the challenges that presents to citizens and policy makers.

He travels to about twenty countries, giving overviews of their situations . In each country he also interviews someone in depth - scientists, ecologists, agricultural, wild-life or biodiversity experts - on specific projects they are working on. And each of these projects illuminates the bigger picture, and the problems that are facing the world.

Herewith some (copious!) notes for my own reference - mostly just taken straight from the book. (view spoiler)

The book is also superbly well written. Weisman is a journalist and it shows. The book is wonderfully readable. It was utterly fascinating and I was sorry to come to the end of it.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

A recent Guardian article re a revising of estimates concerning world population...

http://www.theguardian.com/environmen...
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Jaidee
Oct 07, 2013rated it it was amazing  ·  review of another edition
5 "profound, frightening and life-changing" stars !

7th Favorite Read of 2015 

This may not be the best book I read this year but it will likely be the most important. Mr. Weisman travels to twenty countries over five continents and interviews scientists, economists, religious leaders, politicians, activists, and everyday people around where our world is headed.

Initially this book frightened me, and made me feel disgust and anger towards humanity and myself for the state that our beautiful earth is in and our likely extinction in the next two centuries. (yes everybody two centuries). By the end, however, I was filled with remorse and a need to contribute to try and preserve what is left of our beautiful world and see if we cannot extend our existence as well as the marvelous other creatures, plants and elements that we share our earth with. I cannot say I feel hope as I think overall we are a pretty selfish and wretched species despite our intelligence and small slivers of caring for our fellow beings and mother nature.

I was semi-conscious of much of what was written here but like many in the affluent west I avoid many of these issues by losing myself in novels (gosh), opera, music,film, art and my weakness which are sweets and copious amounts of meat. I am also inclined to be a person who immerses himself in the subjective world of ideas, dreams and emotions and in my life's work attempt to alleviate suffering on a micro level working with individuals and couples in a therapeutic context. I make small attempts to make my toxic footprint small but without any major sacrificing of my current fairly comfortable lifestyle.

I loved that this book took a naturalistic and humanistic perspective without falling prey to dogmas such as capitalism, socialism, feminism or any other -ism. He presented cold hard facts about the huge amounts of trouble we are in and presented some small and large projects that have slowed down the destruction of the earth and our own ultimate demise as a species. He does not blame any particular group of people such as the rich or poor, men or women, certain ethnicities or religions but looks at everyone as having a part to play in a slowing down or possible partial reversal of the huge amounts of damage we have done to our fellow creatures, plants and natural resources.

In a nutshell this is what I took:

1. family planning concepts....no more than one or two children for each woman/family that wants children
2. less consumption in general
3. eating much less meat especially beef
4. eating much less fish as we are cleaning out our oceans
5. respect for all our other remaining animals, birds, fish, insects and micro-organisms
6. less use of unnatural fertilizers
7. less use of antibiotics
8. access to education for everybody regardless of gender and socio-economic status
9. family planning
10. no more blind handouts....assisting people to help themselves with important skills that benefit the earth
11. changing our economic system to sustainability rather than growth
12. less consumption
13. family planning
14. less consumption
15 family planning (you get the idea)

Mr. Weisman I just want to say you have the most apt last name as you have so much wisdom coupled with the added bonus of also having a huge well of compassion for humanity, our fellow creatures and mother earth herself. Thank you so much.
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R.Z.
Sep 08, 2013rated it it was amazing
Alan Weisman has written a masterful, detailed, and well-researched account of the problem that increased population of human beings is bringing to our planet. He begins with a shocking report of how Israelis and Palestinians are destroying the land which they claim to love through their unceasing birthrate. It is painful to read. Next comes Mexico, Uganda, Great Britain, and country after country, including the Vatican, showing how each is culpable in helping to destroy our planet making it unlivable for most creatures now inhabiting the earth. We cannot survive at the present rate of human growth.

Nevertheless, Weisman is preaching to the choir. No person who lives in denial about what is happening, and no person who truly believes that more is better will ever read this book. Use it then, as a reference to make your own case however you can to convince your family and friends to have fewer babies or no babies at all. Use it as a jumping-off place to understand the environment and how fragile it is when the interconnections among plants and animals and soil is broken.

This is a tough book to read.
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Max
Jun 26, 2017rated it it was amazing
Shelves: science
Alan Weisman who wrote the popular The World Without Us looks at world population growth and its impact. He goes beyond the statistics and dire forecasts, taking us to communities around the globe. We see the complexity of dealing with rapidly increasing populations and environmental degradation. Each situation is different; some are success stories and some are communities trapped in downward spirals. Entrenched power, greed and tradition are difficult to overcome, but NGO’s, committed governments and local activists can make the difference. Standing out the most is the status of women. When women are educated and have a voice birth rates decline. The environmental impact of population is multiplied by affluence and consumption. Below I highlight a few of the situations Weisman describes. All statistics are from the book except as noted.

Weisman’s first stop is in Israel where settlements and walls have divided the land into small enclaves restricting the access of the Palestinians to their land and severely disrupting wildlife and the ecosystem. Many Palestinians believe a high birth rate will help them win their fight against the Israelis. But with meager resources, this means poverty, dependence and destruction of the environment. Most Israelis choose to limit their family size, but their consumer oriented Western lifestyle pressures the environment. Conversely the ultra-Orthodox Haredi have as many children as possible. The Israel Central Bureau of Statistics puts the 2016 growth rate of Haredi in Israel at 5% per annum, non-Haredi Jews 1.2%. Their increasing numbers give them increasing influence in Israeli politics. For both the Haredi and traditional Palestinians, women are second class citizens. Here we see examples of having many children for religious and cultural reasons but also as a way to achieve power. This arid land’s resources are already severely stressed. Yet 1.5 million live in Gaza, a 25 mile long 4 to 7 miles wide thin strip of land and Gaza’s population doubles every twelve to fifteen years. Israel’s non-desert areas are also very densely populated.

Pakistan has 201 million people today, 185 million when this book was written four years ago. At the current rate at mid-century it will exceed the population of the US, packing 395 million people in a country the size of Texas. 60% of Pakistanis are under thirty facing high unemployment, a destabilizing influence on a nuclear power. Technology has helped Pakistan fend off starvation with deeper wells and more dams, but these measures will not keep up with population increases. Deep wells are giving out and all of the water in the Indus is used before reaching the sea. India diverts much of the headwaters to Punjab farms. Thus salt water is intruding in the delta where fresh water to drink has to be hauled in. There are ten times as many schools for boys as girls. As of 2016 over half of Pakistani women and children under five are malnourished according to the World Food Programme. Tradition dictates that they get what the men leave them. What contraceptives are available are largely courtesy of USAID.

Niger is in the Sahel, the narrow band of marginally productive land between the Sahara to the north and African savanna to the south. Here people barely scratch out a living as climate change portends a grim future. A traditional Muslim country, men have many wives and many children even as the desert closes in. 1% of girls complete primary school. 15% can read. 10% of its people are slaves. Until 2007 when the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) began a family planning program, only 5% of Nigerian women used contraceptives. The rate is up to 16%, but the remaining population is more resistant. Birth control here and in Pakistan is seen as a Western conspiracy.

In 1956 Iran was a nation of 18.9 million people. Iranian women averaged 7.7 children. By the time of the Iranian revolution 23 years later the population had nearly doubled to 37 million. One year later in 1980 Iraq and Iran went to war. Women were told to bear children to help Iran build a twenty million man army. The legal age of marriage was dropped to thirteen. Financial incentives were put in place for having children. By 1986 there were fifty million Iranians, doubling in just twenty years. The war ended and the government reversed policy as Iran’s resources were strained by the burgeoning population. Two factors made the government’s new policy successful. Strong community based promotion of contraception and the education of women. In 1975 only one third of females could read. By 2012 the literacy rate for females 26 and under was 96% and 60% of Iranian university students were women. These women had very different ideas about family size. By 2012 Iran’s fertility rate was 1.7 children for each woman, below the replacement rate of 2.1. Iran’s program worked faster than China’s one child policy, which led to selective abortions and the destabilizing situation of too many young men without prospective partners.

Italy’s birthrate in the 1990s dipped at one point to the extraordinarily low 1.12 per woman. In 2014 according to the World Bank it was 1.39, still well below replacement. It’s not surprising that in Italy women hold more PhD’s than men. Spain’s 2014 rate was even lower at 1.27. This is particularly interesting because both countries are strongly Catholic. Both countries show the power of educated women. The Church has had much more success in its anti-contraception anti-abortion policies in the less educated Philippines. This nation cannot feed or find work for its population many of whom are forced to find menial jobs in the Middle East or at sea. Climate change and overpopulation are having devastating effects not only on the land but in the surrounding waters.

For developed countries with birthrates below replacement the economy becomes an issue. One answer is immigration, but in Europe this has posed serious problems with newcomers not assimilating and cultures clashing. Also for many who want to preserve the environment, less population and less consumerist economic growth are considered good things. Those concerned with the environment are often the same people concerned with the plight of the disenfranchised who are clamoring to get in. That is why this is a global problem. Local solutions can only achieve so much. It is a crowded world.

NGO’s, USAID, UNFPA and like organizations play a big role in helping places such as Niger and Pakistan get access to birth control. Much of the money for these groups comes from the United States. 98% of the money for UNFPA comes from four American foundations, 81% from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation alone. Sadly the restrictive policies and draconian budget cuts for USAID proposed by the Trump administration will mean far less help for these unfortunate people.

In 1900 the World’s population was 1.6 billion, as I write this it is 7.5 billion according to Worldometers.info. Also as I was writing this the UN upped its estimate for 2050 to 9.8 billion. In the next 33 years we will add more people than lived on earth 90 years ago (2 billion). And this growth will happen mostly in countries already environmentally and economically challenged such as India, Pakistan, Nigeria, and the Congo. There are success stories in poor countries such as Bangladesh with a current birthrate of 2.25 vs 6.6 when it split from Pakistan. However local initiatives and international organizations are having limited success.

The whole dialogue needs to change from one of economic growth to sustainable growth. Yet sustainability just gets lip service. Governments worldwide are dedicated to economic growth ignoring long term consequences. In the US environmental regulations are being cast aside, climate change denied and voters blinded by the Siren call of the consumerist society. The world is already pressing the limits of growth in arable land and fresh water while we pump CO2 into the atmosphere, phosphorous into the ocean and nitrogen into the soil to keep pace. We are on a treadmill. In the developed world this is due to high consumption. In developing countries, the lack of education and empowerment of women result in high birthrates. Of course as these countries become developed they adopt the Western model.

I don’t want to paint this book as a completely dark read. It has a very human and engaging side. Weisman talks to the people in the communities he visits and we hear firsthand from people on all sides: religious people, environmentalists, men and women in traditional societies with many children, women trying to break out of traditional patterns, activists and representatives from NGO’s and local groups grappling with the problem. This review falls short in not relating the many revealing conversations Weisman has with these people. But then that is a good reason for you to add Countdown to your reading list.
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Rob Waiser
Aug 29, 2013rated it really liked it
Shelves: giveaway-win
I received this book through a goodreads giveaway.

I do not consider myself a particularly avid environmentalist and this is not the type of book I would typically pick up for myself, but I'm really glad I read it. One of the highest compliments I can give a book (especially non-fiction) is that I find myself talking about it with other people, and that has been the case with this book many times already.

I was afraid that it might be a bit dry, but the author does a great job of delivering his me
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Kat
Jul 05, 2013rated it it was amazing
I won this book from the firstreads giveaway. Thank you, goodreads, for the opportunity to read this book.

Review

First, let us take a look at Alan Weisman's style in Countdown:

When I begin to read a non-fiction book that introduces a new idea that is meant for an audience who is ignorant about said idea, I expect a certain amount of ease of reading. That is not to say it should be simplistic, but the ideas must be presented in such a way that a wide range of people can understand it.

On this topic, Weisman hit the nail on the head. He did not dumb anything down for his audience, but everything that he explained was written in a clear easy to follow manner. Especially considering the important subject matter, I believe this is essential to the ability to reach a wide number of people.

I also appreciated how Weisman broke down each country—with population issues that he addressed—into a separate chapter. His choice to do this made this book easy to follow and easy to revisit certain aspects of each country. Furthermore, I felt that it really demonstrated how even though we are individual nations with our own individual problems, we are all connected in the struggle for humanity and its survival.

And just a short note on the content:

I do not want to go too deep into the content of Countdown, because I feel this needs to be read in the context of the whole book. However, I do want to note that the issue of overpopulation is real, and whether we want to admit it or not, it is a problem. Also, the anecdotes from each country alone, and not necessarily just the message, are interesting and worth reading.

I do realize that this book is not going to change everyone's mind who may not wholly agree with what Weisman purports. Even if these issues do not concern you, it is worth the read just to familiarize yourself with the issue. There is a good chance that no matter how you feel going in, it will, to some extent, open you up to new ideas about life and the future.

This book goes on sale September 24, 2013.
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Jose Moa
Apr 23, 2016rated it really liked it
Shelves: ecologism
Ths is one more book mainly focused over population explosion,all the books on this subject make clear the logical incompatibility between a exponential growth of population an the limited resources of a rather small planet.

Is a book long with a extense list of references.The author has traveled arroun the world and interwiwed many people.He had chosen several countries as examples,some succesful in birth control as for example Iran and others not as for example Philipines due mostly to the intransigence of the catholic church.

The conclusion following all this is that with women education,information and some help is posible reach a razonable birth control.

The last chapters are devoted to the problems related with the progresive reduction of the population as for example caring of a growing number of old people an the economic problems caused by it.

He is hopefull that if we decisively actuate in educatin and human development we can solve the problem in two generations.Also say that scientist think that with a level of developing,energy consuming and resources consuming in a level similar to mean europeans the optimal population for a sustainability life withut irreversible damaging the planets biosphere is of 1500 to 2000 million people a level of 1930.

One can think that Aln Weisman is too optimist about this problem.
Other people think that yet if we can control the birth rate is dificult to descend to 2 or less child per woman and that with the actual population of near 7400 millions the demographic impulse will drag us to at least 10000 million at the end of the century and that a little difference of more 0.5 child per woman we can reach 16000 million of us on that date,in this case the entire system will collapse and a global catastrophe will be inevitable.

There are three legs interconected : population explosion,climate change and global extinction,most people think that the more important leg is population explosion.

A interesting recomendable and full of data and references book
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April Franklin
Sep 25, 2013rated it it was ok
This started with a lot of promise. It included a lot of examples of how extremely high fertility rates in developing nations have been harmful to mothers and children and the environment, and how some countries have changed their high fertility rates. But I felt that the book overall left something to be desired. It spent a lot of time talking about the problem, and not as much talking about solutions. It did talk about how some countries lowered their fertility rate, but it didn't spend much time on how countries are going to deal with having a very large older population and a lower population of kids. It acknowledged that this will be an issue we must deal with, and that we will all be better off once we have a stable, smaller population, but didn't really go into depth about solutions to get through the transition. Also, the book included some unfounded negative stereotypes about only children, which is not helpful in a book advocating a lower birth rate. (less)
jeremy
Jul 25, 2013rated it it was amazing
we humans, despite our natural aptitude for mathematics, seem to have an arduous time making sense of concepts that involve very large numbers. unfortunately however, abstract notions have absolute consequences, whether anticipated or otherwise. although it took until the early 1800s for global population to reach its first billion, it has doubled twice since the year 1900, giving us now some seven billion people worldwide. around the year 2050, the united nations estimates that there may well be ten billion of us inhabiting this fragile pale blue dot we call home. as journalist alan weisman points out in his rousing, urgent new book, countdown, every four and a half days, we add another million people to our population tally – without the corresponding increase in available resources.

weisman’s previous work, the world without us, imagined our planet suddenly devoid of human presence in a thought experiment that sought to examine how quickly nature could restore itself to balance – sans homo sapiens. incountdown, a more than ample follow-up, he considers overpopulation and the myriad threats that may come with exceeding our planet’s carrying capacity. visiting more than 20 countries around the globe, weisman immersed himself in vastly disparate cultures, interviewing leaders, subject experts, and locals to learn how other societies and traditions deal (and have dealt) with the specifics of population control.

country by country, weisman encounters a wealth of efforts, strategies, attitudes, and mores that have proven on many occasions to halt or reverse the swelling of local or national populations, some of which, while perhaps morally questionable to western sensibilities, have nonetheless fulfilled their charge. methods employed include family planning, sex education, contraception (both male and female), abortion, adoption, infanticide, gender ultrasounds, economic incentives, birth spacing, and legislation limiting the number of children a couple may legally bear. the most efficacious actions, noted in a number of different countries, tend to be those that focus on raising education and equality standards for women, empowering them to make their own responsible reproductive decisions.

as more and more countries begin struggling with the effects of climate change, drought, rising temperatures, finite resources, overfishing, topsoil depletion, species decline, food scarcity, falling water tables, rising sea levels, and the like, the need to rein in burgeoning populations becomes ever more paramount. while countdown draws a link between overpopulation and the impending effects of a warming planet, weisman remains optimistic that curbing rampant population growth may be our best strategy to mitigate its worst repercussions.
among the many tricks we will try to keep fitting ourselves onto this planet, there is one that we already know. the technology is cheaper than all the others by many orders of magnitude. it is reducing the numbers of bodies to feed by managing our reproduction, before nature steps in to do that for us.
books warning of the looming climate catastrophe have proliferated for years, but countdown, in focusing on the population-side factor of the equation, argues for wider adoption of solutions already in place and calls for injecting sense, wisdom, and prudence into the discussion. weisman’s plea is surely more effective than those that proffer a litany of worst-case scenarios designed to scare us into action. by exploring and integrating the lessons from cultures the world over, weisman has been able to provide a blueprint that will ultimately benefit the planet as a whole. countdown is a timely, essential, and hopeful work – one that suggests compassion in place of consumption and promises a return to an equilibrium that will prove a veritable windfall for humans, non-humans, and ecosystems alike.
yet although we strive for the heavens, as pascal noted, we are still mammals who, like all other earthly creatures, require food and water - resources that we are now outstripping. out seafood is down to dregs scraped from the ocean floor; our soils on chemical life support; our rivers fouled and drained. we squeeze and shatter rocks, mine frigid seas, and split atoms in risky places because easily harvested fuels are nearly gone. like kaibab deer, every species in the history of biology that outgrows its resource base suffers a population crash - a crash sometimes fatal to the entire species. in a world now stretched to the brink, today we all live in a parkland, not a boundless wilderness. to survive and continue the legacy of our species, we must adjust accordingly. inevitably - and, we must hope, humanely and nonviolently - that means gradually bringing our numbers down. the alternative is letting nature - the new nature we've inadvertently created in our own image - do that for us.
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Aaron
Jul 05, 2013rated it it was amazing
Recommends it for: everyone
Recommended to Aaron by: Goodreads
Per FTC rules: I received a free copy of this book as a giveaway from Goodreads First Reads.

A sobering look at the population woes that beset the human race and how various cultures are approaching the issue. Truly this is a work that is not to dismissed when you consider the population trajectory that we're on and the problems inherent that we're already trying to deal with. Multiple times throughout this book, Weisman reminds us that we're on course to have 10 billion (possibly MORE!) people on this planet by the end of the century. That is conceivably within my children's lifetime. Our planet, with its current distribution of food and water, cannot survive with this number of people, at least not in the way that we (people in developed countries) have become accustomed to. This book goes beyond global warming and recycling to get at the notion that we have no real need to continue our population growth and every reason to bring it down a sustainable level. Surprisingly, it could be very simple...as simple as the education of women and the real application of family planning. This is a novel well worth reading and hopefully it will sell less copies because we've agreed to the premise of this book.
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Elizabeth Stolar
Jul 06, 2013rated it it was amazing
I won an ARC of this book from Goodreads and was very excited to receive it. I was not disappointed. Having really loved Weisman's previous book, The World Without Us, I was very interested to read his follow-up book, about overpopulation, and how the world could survive with us. I highly recommend this book to everyone, to get a firm grasp on the issues that we face, not just specifically about overpopulation, but about how utterly interconnected so many of our issues are -- women's equality, climate change, education. His observations and insight into various different countries and religions about population control are invaluable and occasionally dismaying.

This is one of those books that would make all of us better off if everyone read it. 
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Nicole Wolverton
Jun 01, 2013rated it it was amazing
Weisman's latest book, Countdown, takes a look at the point at which human population (or overpopulation) and the environment (or overconsumption) converge. That point is incredibly frightening, because from there on we're looking at famine and a lot of suffering that we, as humans, might avoid simply by controlling population.

There's quite a bit of discussion about which countries are being responsible or irresponsible re: population growth and environmental sustainability. It's been particularly interesting to see that some of the most knowledgeable women about contraception are often from poor, third world countries--simply because there's been an effort made there to curb out-of-control reproduction by making contraception and medical information widely available. Many of these women are far more educated than, for instance, a certain segment of the US population (e.g., the segment who believes women's bodies have a way of shutting down pregnancy after a rape).

What the tipping point is, the point at which the ability for the Earth to support its population tanks, no one can be entirely sure. But the rate at which the population grows, the rate at which we consume, the rate at which we encroach into wildlife habitats and pollute the Earth . . . it's clear that we're headed for a major crisis. For every government who behaves responsibly (I hate to say it, but China's one child policy will protect them), there is a government who encourages overpopulation (Iran) simply so they can "win"--whatever winning to them means. Outpopulating the enemy, raising a giant army, etc.

Weisman's book gave me a lot to think about. As part of a married couple that doesn't want children, I feel good about not adding to the population problem. But I'm still thinking about my own consumption habits. And if this book gets read (or a mini-series is made out of it, like his last book), and even a small portion of people who get the message think about (and do something about) their lifestyle, it's a successful effort.
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Dianna
Jul 07, 2013rated it liked it
Shelves: first-reads
Reading this book is like reading a long, long, long National Geographic article on overpopulation (without the pretty pictures). Weisman takes us all over the world, from Israel to Thailand to India, to show us how people are dealing with exploding populations.

His solution? Have fewer babies. While it's hard to disagree with the numbers, and it is definitely true that our Earth can't handle us all having nine kids, I did wish there was more emphasis on overconsumption—because that's what I truly feel is out of control. Weisman also briefly mentioned ecomomics—and the fact that our economies that depend on infinite growth need to change. I would have welcomed more discussion on that subject. Birth control, however, probably took up half the book.

I'm glad to have read this book and to have gained a more international perspective on issues facing our world today—because frankly, from my comfortable U.S. home in a suburb, I can't see any of these problems with my own eyes.

I received a copy of this book from the publisher through Goodreads First Reads.
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Eric
Jul 07, 2013rated it really liked it
Shelves: first-reads
This book is one of the best that I have read that deals with the overpopulation issues that we are facing. Not only does it talk about the general subject , but Weisman examines what is happening in different countries around the world. This multicultural approach is one of the biggest strengths of the book, as it reduces the amount of ethnocentrism and shows what approaches have worked before and what is preventing some cultures from reducing their birth rates to more manageable levels.

Overall, I would recommend this book to anyone who wants to find out how the world can be improved through realistic methods.

*** I received this book for free through Goodreads First Reads ***
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สฤณี อาชวานันทกุล
หลังจากที่ดังเปรี้ยงปร้างกับหนังสือสารคดีที่ดีมากๆ เรื่อง World Without Us ว่าด้วยหน้าตาของโลกถ้าหากมนุษย์สูญพันธุ์ไปหมด คราวนี้ Alan Weisman หันมาจับโลกแห่งความจริงด้วย Countdown ซึ่งพยายามตอบคำถามสามคำถามที่สำคัญที่สุดศตวรรษนี้ คือ

1.ระบบธรรมชาติบนดาวเคราะห์โลกจะรองรับประชากรมนุษย์ได้กี่พันล้านคนก่อนที่จะล่มสลาย?
2.ถ้าหากประชากรโลกเติบโตจาก 7.5 พันล้านในวันนี้เป็น 1 หมื่นล้านคน ซึ่งดูแนวโน้มแล้วจะถึงภายในไม่กี่สิบปีข้างหน้า จะเกิดอะไรขึ้น?
3.เราจะออกแบบระบบเศรษฐกิจใหม่ให้เจริญรุ่งเรือง คนมีคุณภาพชีวิตที่ดีได้โดยไม่ต้อง "เติบโต" อย่างต่อเนื่องได้หรือไม่?

วิธีตอบคำถามของ Weisman คือเขาเดินทางไปทั่วโลก แต่ละบทในหนังสือเล่มนี้ฉายภาพสถานการณ์ของประเทศใดประเทศหนึ่ง ผนวกกับข้อคิดเห็นจากนักวิทยาศาสตร์ นักประชากรศาสตร์ ปัญญาชน ผู้นำทางการเมือง ผู้นำศาสนา และคนธรรมดาในประเทศนั้นๆ โดยใช้สไตล์การเขียนแบบเดียวกับ World Without Us คือผสมเรื่องราวส่วนตัวของตัวละครต่างๆ เข้ากับข้อเท็จจริง ฉายภาพให้เห็นชัดและย่อยข้อมูลให้เข้าใจง่าย รวมถึงอธิบายบริบททางสังคม วัฒนธรรม และประวัติศาสตร์ของแต่ละประเทศให้เข้าใจว่า แต่ละประเทศเผชิญกับปัญหา "ประชากรล้นเกิน" ในอดีตหรืออนาคตอย่างไร มีวิธีรับมือหรือกำลังศึกษาวิธีรับมืออย่างไร

Weisman ฉายความเชื่อมโยงให้เห็นชัดระหว่างการเติบโตของประชากร การเติบโตของเศรษฐกิจ และแรงตึงเครียดต่อทรัพยากรธรรมชาติ ตั้งแต่บริษัทก่อสร้างในอิสราเอลเป็นกังวลว่าทรายจะหมดประเทศ ชาวประมงฟิลิปปินส์ยากจนกว่าเดิมเพราะปลาเริ่มหมดทะเล ชาวนาอินเดียกังวลว่าธัญพืชผลผลิตสูงที่เกิดจาก "ปฏิวัติเขียว" แม้จะช่วยแก้ปัญหาความอดอยากในทศวรรษ 1970 ได้จริง แต่ตอนนี้กำลังจะทำให้ประเทศขาดแคลนน้ำ นักวิทยาศาสตร์จีนหลายคนคิดว่าจีนต้องเริ่มคุมจำนวนประชากร ในขณะที่ญี่ปุ่นคิดว่าจะเปลี่ยนสังคมให้เน้นคุณภาพชีวิตแทนที่การเติบโตไม่สิ้นสุดอย่างไรในเมื่อประชากรญี่ปุ่นลดลงเรื่อยๆ

หนังสือเล่มนี้สรุปประเด็นเรื่องประชากรได้อย่างชัดเจนว่า เป็นเรื่องของข้อเท็จจริงง่ายๆ ทางชีววิทยา - เมื่อใดก็ตามที่ประชากรของสิ่งมีชีวิตเติบโตเกินขนาดของทรัพยากรธรรมชาติที่มันพึ่งพา มันก็จะต้องเผชิญกับวิกฤตการหดตัวของประชากร (population crash) ฉะนั้นมนุษยชาติจึงมีสองทางเลือกเท่านั้น คือ ปล่อยให้เกิดวิกฤต (ให้ธรรมชาติ "ดูแลตัวเอง") หรือไม่ก็พยายามค่อยๆ หาทางลดจำนวนประชากรโลกลง ให้ถึงระดับที่ทุกคนจะสามารถใช้ชีวิตอย่างมีความสุขได้โดยไม่ทำลายฐานทรัพยากรที่ตัวเองต้องใช้

ประเด็นหนึ่งที่หนังสือทำได้ดีคือ ฉายภาพวิวาทะระหว่างนักคิด (โดยเฉพาะนักเศรษฐศาสตร์) กระแสหลักที่เชื่อว่าเทคโนโลยีใหม่ๆ จะช่วยแก้ปัญหาทรัพยากรให้มนุษย์เพิ่มจำนวนขึ้นเรื่อยๆ ได้ แบบเดียวกับที่การปฏิวัติอุตสาหกรรมและปฏิวัติเขียวเคยทำสำเร็จในอดีต กับนักคิดกระแสรองที่เชื่อว่าไม่มีเทคโนโลยีวิเศษอะไรที่จะช่วยปลดล็อกการเติบโตของประชากรในศตวรรษนี้ได้แล้ว เพราะฐานทรัพยากรถูกทำลายรุนแรงกว่าในอดีต และประชากรก็เติบโตเร็วกว่านวัตกรรมใหม่ๆ จะตามทัน นอกจากนี้เทคโนโลยีใหม่ๆ ก็มีต้นทุนด้านสิ่งแวดล้อม อย่างเช่นแรงตึงเครียดที่ปฏิวัติเขียว (วิถีเกษตรอุตสาหกรรม) สร้างต่อแหล่งน้ำ ฯลฯ ฉะนั้นเทคโนโลยีใหม่ๆ เหล่านี้ทำได้อย่างมากเพียง "ชะลอ" วิกฤตประชากรออกไปเท่านั้น ไม่สามารถ "แก้ปัญหา" ให้เราได้อย่างชะงัด

สนุกมากและน่าจะ "ต้องอ่าน" สำหรับทุกคนที่อยากมองว่าโลกเราน่าจะเป็นอย่างไรในอีก 20-30 ปีข้างหน้า วันนี้มีความท้าทายใหญ่ๆ อะไรบ้างที่กำลังตีกรอบการเติบโต
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Carol Smith
Jun 06, 2013rated it it was amazing
Shelves: nonfiction2013-favs
Disclosure: Won an advance copy on FirstReads. Also an unabashed, hopelessly biased fan of Weisman's The World Without Us.

Powerful. And among the best and most effective epilogues I've ever read. I don't think it would do the reader a disservice to read it first (and then again at the end). It sets the stage for the book's argument, which an unnamed woman in the epilogue sums up pithily: "There is not a single problem on Earth that wouldn't be easier if there were fewer people."

Weisman takes us on a trip around the world, with each chapter focusing on a different country and exploring how their particular population dynamics intersect with, impact, and are impacted by just about everything else, including economics, politics, education, environment, biodiversity, agriculture, water, warfare,...on and on. The chapter on Iran was particularly fascinating (and perplexing), and will no doubt lead me to read more on the subject.

It was a privilege being able to read this before most others. Will find a place on my bookshelf next to The World Without Us and The Geography of Nowhere, two other books that have had similarly strong impact on my thinking.

Note: Caught at least 3 typos in my advance copy. Trusting these will be caught prior to final publication.
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Nick
Jan 02, 2014rated it did not like it
I wanted to love this book. I think The World Without Us is a masterpiece of imagination and science, and strong writing. So I was impatient for Countdown. And it does start promisingly as Weisman assesses what is undeniably a crisis. In fact, it is a crisis of unimaginable proportions: the planet cannot furnish 7 billion people with the resources to live sustainably, never mind the 10 billion it will soon be home to. ("Sustainably" is a word that has been watered down with misuse; in this context, something sustainable is something we can keep on doing indefinitely. That is, it describes almost no feature of our everyday lives.) To even raise the topic is a pronouncement of doom.
So I expected the form of the book to match the content. If the content is something so startling and uncanny, the form should be too. And, given the virtuoso performance of The World Without US, that's what I was looking forward to. I don't want to disparage Weisman's book -- it's obviously well-researched and timely -- but it does not deliver what I had hoped it would.
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Vince
Oct 02, 2013rated it it was amazing
The world's population is increasing at the rate of one million people every 4 1/2 days. A terrifying fact and one that's hard to get your head around. Weisman's unflinching look at how unfettered population growth is impacting the earth's ecosystems around the globe, and the efforts of committed individuals and organizations to confront the inevitable is a conscious raising masterwork of journalism.

Countdown is a superbly written and engrossing examination of humanity's expansion in diverse nations, cultures and religions told primarily though interviews with people whose lives are deeply affected by a shrinking supply of water and food, and the environmental degradation already upon them.

I could not put this book down and, once finished, could not stop thinking about the implications of what I learned. Must reading for all. 
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Shawn
Sep 06, 2013rated it liked it
An important book, and the amount of "human interest" detail --too much for my taste-- will undoubtedly result in it being read more widely than a shorter, more focused on the science, book would have been. But I had hoped for much more on how a steady population world/economy could work, and, except for a too-brief chapter on Japan's situation, there was very little. He does do a good job of making clear the grave danger the world faces and notes that his friend Paul Ehrlich believes that there's no more than a 10% chance that we will act to avoid a calamitous natural population crash. (less)
William Crosby
Oct 13, 2013rated it liked it
Goes around the world examining various country's environmental and population strategies (links population with environmental degradation). Lots of information showing different strategies to ameliorate environmental damage and to control/not control population/birth rates. Sometimes gets tedious with too much information. Makes the argument repeatedly and over and over again and on and on that having too many people is linked with environmental damage.
Librariann
May 22, 2015rated it really liked it
Shelves: nonfiction2015adult
"You have to finish reading Countdown before we get pregnant," Mike sez.

I do not.

"Now we're having a baby and you haven't even finished Countdown!"

NOW I HAVE.

Guess what? Population crises suck. Will the same world be around for Tugboat in 2050? Probably not, but I don't see a Cormac McCarthy scenario either. (In Mike's version of the events, I am Charlize Theron.) That's why I continue to give money to fund abortions.
Stephen C.
Sep 24, 2015rated it really liked it
If Earth’s enormous human population is a threat multiplier, and raising death rates is not an acceptable answer, how do you reduce human population to avoid catastrophe? While answering this question, author Alan Weisman summarizes the 20th century’s human population explosion in ecological terms, and points out the plethora of literature indicating a grim future for humanity. Weisman’s argument acknowledges the traditional reaction to population control as inequitable. However, he points out t...more
Liz
Jul 04, 2013rated it really liked it
Shelves: first-readsall_mine
This review has been hidden because it contains spoilers. To view it, click here.
Jennie
Jul 07, 2013rated it it was amazing
I won a free copy from as a part of a Goodreads giveaway.

This is one of the more powerful books I’ve read in a while. Weisman got right to the root of the problem of overpopulation that leads to overconsumption of Earth’s resources. There was some repetition when describing some of the many countries and our ability to rein in the number of children with the use of birth control. He describes a lot of countries that I would have ever crossed my mind had he not mentioned them. It seems that education is still one of the strongest factors for reducing our numbers.

The part that I found fascinating is countries that have large numbers of aging people and a younger population that will struggle financially to care for them. He mostly focused on Japan and I wish he would have expanded on that a little more. Japan may be a society that really learns to live within its means without growth. It sounds like a scary proposition but Japan is facing that fact. I can’t imagine the word “growth” and “our economy” not being used in the same sentence. It seems that some countries have come to terms that we don’t have unlimited resources.

He touches on environmental factors of an exploding population including the subject of water and land. We don’t seem to have regard for the depletion of our water, polluting both land and water, then wonder why we cannot produce bountiful crops year after year to feed an ever growing population. We don’t seem to have any determination to change our behavior that's important in saving us in the future. Technology has always been important to our society, as a whole, but we may need to rely on it to help us with new ways to feed our population as we continue on the same path of depleting our resources. He stresses the use of biodiversity but it has been a slow process when trying to compete against corporations and powerful agribusiness.

We are resourceful and will find ways out of certain situations with something new or revolutionary but some of it, we just can’t outrun.
I really enjoyed this book and am glad I won a copy of it. 
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Scott Haraburda
Jul 04, 2013rated it it was amazing
Shelves: first-reads
Goodreads First Reads Giveaway Book.

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In world that has too many people, we often encounter numerous warnings predicting a terrible future for humankind. Many of these are described in the recent 2013 book, Countdown: Our Last, Best Hope for a Future on Earth?. It’s a book that grabs our fear of future problems and appeals to our love of our planet, as it attempts to discover realistic solutions.

The author visited a couple of dozen countries as he explored four vital questions. How many people can live on the planet? What can we do to limit population growth? What other planetary resources and species are necessary for human survival? And, can we develop an economy that doesn’t depend upon human growth and increased consumption?

Written with remarkable clarity, the author presents intermixed stories of scientists and world leaders pursuing a sustainable human future. Some of the simple answers involve reducing poverty, thirst, and hunger through improved education and family planning throughout the world.

The author, Alan Weisman, is an American journalist who has written several books and won numerous international awards. His is known for his 2007 book The World Without Us, which is a post-human description of the world. This book was ranked #1 on Time magazine’s top 10 non-fiction books of year. I predict that his recent book, Countdown has the same potential.

As the world approaches ten billion humans later this century, Countdownaddresses how humans can survive. This book raises profound concerns about our future survival and should be required reading for all world leaders.
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WendyB
Jun 06, 2013rated it liked it
Shelves: gr-giveaway
I received this book for free through Goodreads First Read.

Loads of information on the effects of over-population, but I found the book over long and repetitive. As much as I enjoyed "The World Without Us" for the informative and imaginative way it showed how the world would change without a human presence, I found "Countdown" a bit of a difficult slog to get through. Why? Maybe the book just wasn't my cup of tea, and I'm sure many readers here will disagree with my assessment of the book, but I felt the amount of detail on the ecological damage was too much and became tedious and repetitive.
Some of the individual stories made me sad for the women who have such difficult lives without hope of anything better. As a woman without children, I couldn't imagine having to undergo multiple pregnancies knowing the child possibly wouldn't survive, and if it did there would be little hope of a safe life with shelter, food, and education.
On the whole, I would say this is a worthwhile read, and it has me interested in learning what more I can do to help preserve the planet for future generations. 
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Ron
Jun 16, 2013rated it really liked it
(Obtained through a Goodreads giveaway.) This is a sequel to Weisman's provocative thought-experiment "The World Without Us", an imagining of how (whether?)nature might recover in the absence of human presence. "Countdown" reintroduces humans, in our unprecedented numbers, into the equation. The central thesis is that although the growth rate of human populations has decreased, our numbers present an inordinate challenge to the earth's capacity. Weisman argues his case articulately, thoughtfully, and insightfully. This book will be a research treasure-trove for students of demography, geography, political science and beyond. It's one significant weakness lies in its excessive length. It is, quite simply, overdone. Readers would be better served by a book that cuts to the chase in about two-thirds the number of pages (examples, anecdotes, etc.) But make no mistake: This is an important book, bringing population growth back into focus after being too long on the margins of public policy.(less)
bibliotekker Holman
Aug 28, 2013rated it really liked it
The author of the excellent thought experiment titled World Without Us, reprises his role to help us think more about where the demographic math is leading us. Informative chapters give us an inside look into the realities within a number of individual countries. It makes for sobering reading, considering he barely acknowledges the factors of climate change and increasing resource use as people around the world raise their consumption levels.
I'm anxious to read the new Population 10 Billion by demographer Daniel Dorling that purports to offers a more positive outlook on burgeoning global population. In my view, if we can solve the energy problem and the food problem...the twin interconnected horseman of apocalypse, that have dogged humanity through the ages...the future could be very bright indeed.
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Elescia
Jun 19, 2014rated it it was amazing
Alan Weisman is an amazing writer. I devoured each chapter of this book and learned so many fascinating facts about population growth and policies in various countries, how scientists are working hard to genetically modify crops - in a good way - to enhance growing potential and nutritional value, what overpopulation is doing to our natural resources, land and animals, and just how dire the situation is for the future. It wasn't all doom and gloom - if a few things change (simple things, really) then there is hope! But we have to get the word out and we need the entire planet working together to get it done. Both parts visionary and enlightening, this book is one that I will enthusiastically bring up in every conversation I have going forward. I think it's an important book for people to read. (less)