Nonzero: The Logic of Human Destiny by Robert Wright | Goodreads

Nonzero: The Logic of Human Destiny by Robert Wright | Goodreads




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Nonzero: The Logic of Human Destiny

by
Robert Wright
3.98 · Rating details · 2,019 ratings · 187 reviews
In his bestselling The Moral Animal, Robert Wright applied the principles of evolutionary biology to the study of the human mind. Now Wright attempts something even more ambitious: explaining the direction of evolution and human history–and discerning where history will lead us next.

In Nonzero: The Logic of Human Destiny, Wright asserts that, ever since the primordial ooze, life has followed a basic pattern. Organisms and human societies alike have grown more complex by mastering the challenges of internal cooperation. Wright's narrative ranges from fossilized bacteria to vampire bats, from stone-age villages to the World Trade Organization, uncovering such surprises as the benefits of barbarian hordes and the useful stability of feudalism. Here is history endowed with moral significance–a way of looking at our biological and cultural evolution that suggests, refreshingly, that human morality has improved over time, and that our instinct to discover meaning may itself serve a higher purpose. Insightful, witty, profound, Nonzero offers breathtaking implications for what we believe and how we adapt to technology's ongoing transformation of the world.

Kindle Edition, 450 pages
Published (first published 1999)
Original Title
Nonzero: The Logic of Human Destiny
ASIN
B000Q9IRBY
Edition Language
English

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Dec 25, 2010Jake rated it liked it · review of another edition
Shelves: science, history

There's a subtle difference between popular science books written by scientists, and popular science books written by science journalists. Compare Robert Wright's "Nonzero" to Jared Diamond's "Guns, Germs, and Steel". Both are deep-thinking overviews of human history, largely organized along Darwinian lines- but Diamond's book is brain-shaking in a way that Wright's isn't. One hypothesis might be that scientists are just closer to the material, so their thinking is deeper and more nuanced. But I think there's more to it than that- I think science journalists have a kind of inferiority complex, which usually leads them to overplay their hand. That is, they run ahead of the material, liberally sprinkle the text with their own deep-thoughts, and usually end with some sweeping conclusions that are generally unsupported by the evidence they've presented. That's certainly the case here, at least.

Wright's book starts off strong. His theory is that biological evolution and the evolution of human culture are both directional- that is, they tend inexorably to higher levels of complexity over time. The mechanism by which this occurs is cooperation through trade and inter-dependence. As the sphere of cooperation extends from one cell to multiple cells, to organisms, to humans, to villages, to chiefdoms, to states, to empires, to the entire world, the benefits of cooperation power growth to higher levels of complexity. Much of the theoretical underpinning of the argument comes from game theory (Robert Axelrod's excellent "The Evolution of Cooperation" is one of Wright's touchstones)- the phrase "non-zero sum" itself comes from game theory terminology, meaning a game where both players can benefit from cooperation.

So far, so good. Wright deftly handles some basic objections, such as the frequent setbacks that seem to contradict a trend towards complexity. His general retort is that species and cultures that don't effectively harness the power of cooperation will be outcompeted by species and cultures who do, and so, even though the quirks of history (meteors, despotic rulers) may set back a particular species or culture, when viewed as a whole, culture or biology continues its inexorable climb towards complexity. There are, of course, many eminent scientists who disagree with this argument. Wright reserves most of his ire for Stephen Jay Gould, who spent most of his career arguing that species only evolve to "fit" with their environment, and some environments demand complexity, while others don't. Wright offers an effective response here, which is that if you include competition within a species or culture in the calculation, the environment always includes a force which pushes towards greater complexity.

So where does the book go wrong? Mostly at the end, where Wright extends his argument to prognosticating on the future of the human species, and some tangential topics such as the nature of consciousness. Here, I felt like he was making a classic error of extrapolating from too little evidence. Humans have been around for such a short span of time, biologically speaking, and given that we know of only one species that has ever achieved our level of intelligence, it seems a bit of a leap to conclude that the evolution of intelligence is a basic feature of all life in the universe. Likewise, that humans could be considered a single world-spanning organism. And by the time he gets to exploring the idea that the evolution of humans is part of some eternal plan for the universe to "know itself", I felt like we had moved well beyond the realm of science into theology. Maybe Wright wouldn't disagree- his next book is "The Evolution of God", applying evolutionary theory to study of God.

But what about the really important question- what's going to happen to humanity in the future? Jared Diamond argues convincingly in "Collapse" that we're screwed- we'll eventually outstrip our natural resources, like the people on Easter Island, and end in a pretty grim way. Here Wright offers a starkly different opinion, largely based on the same evidence. He feels like we're about to enter a period of serious shake-up, but eventually, through the effect of new information and energy technologies, humans will enter a new golden age, where we peacefully co-exist, respect the Earth, and evolve even higher levels of consciousness. Who you agree with will probably depend on your natural disposition- as a pessimist, I side with Diamond. But as a human, I'm rooting for Wright. (less)
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May 06, 2009Richard rated it really liked it · review of another edition
Shelves: cognition, nonfiction, social-political, read-these-reviews-first
This is a pretty weak-hearted review.

When I picked up this book I was looking specifically for something and didn’t find it here. And I’d already figured out most of what this book is about, so overall I was disappointed. It might deserve more stars, but I can’t get away from that sense of disappointment.
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What was I obsessing over?

Many years ago I stumbled on Robert Axelrod’s The Evolution of Cooperationand saw in it some astonishing insights. It is strictly about game theory, which tends to lose people right off the bat. If they know anything about the topic, they probably learned how terribly reductionist it is and how absurdly abused it was during the cold war. All correct, but what caused that misuse was the failure to understand in those early days what is clumsily termed “the shadow of the future” (akin, in a somewhat inverse way, to the economist’s term “discount parameter”).

What is so astonishing is that game theory (more precisely the star game, the Prisoner’s Dilemma) states is that in many situations it is perfectly logical for a pair of players to attempt to screw each other, even while knowing that if they cooperate they’ll almost certainly be better off. The reason is actually simple after it has been carefully explained, but the explanation isn’t simple:

1) The game requires that there be no communication between the players. In this it is like many situations in life where one cannot communicate or, more importantly, where communication can’t be trusted (for example, when survival is at stake it may be very foolish to give credence to the peace offerings of that other neolithic tribe that yours has encountered).

2) The stakes in the game happen to be arranged so that you will have abetter outcome by defecting (i.e., screwing) regardless of which choice the other player makes. (This arrangement of payoffs is what makes it a Prisoner’s Dilemma. A slight rearrangement in payoffs turns it into a game of Chicken). Real world situations can be translated into games, but the more complex the situation the more likely there will be disagreement about the form of the payoff matrix. Some nuclear strategists saw the cold war as a Prisoner’s Dilemma, while others saw it as a game of Chicken. Part of that has to do with the distinction between an arms race (more likely to be PD) and an actual war (Chicken, except perhaps to extremists). Trying to turn the real-world into a game is inevitably not scientific, so folks with an overly positivist or empiricist perspective often dismiss all of this as smoke and mirrors. (Fuzzy-minded idealists tend to get lost here and keep saying “why not change the rules of the game?” as if that were somehow easy.)

3) Without communication to set up external constraints (e.g., royal sons or nephews exchanged between feudal kingdoms as hostages), those payoffs are too tempting, so both sides choose the “defect” option.

So even though both players would agree beforehand that the both-cooperate outcome would be best both individually and collectively, logic dictates that they’ll inevitably choose otherwise. And, of course, rationality is assumed (yes, a huge limitation, but such reductionist “thought experiments” can provide a powerful first approximation of reality nevertheless).

So nuclear strategists thought they had every reason to rationally predict the Soviets would eventually betray any “agreement”, so war was inevitable and should be fought soon while the USA had an advantage. Thankfully they were out-shouted.

The mistake? What did they get wrong? Well, plenty of course. Certainly the expectation of rationality. The realization that the fear of a “Chicken” aspect to unlimited nuclear war made it that much more frightening (think of the classic game of automotive Chicken from James Dean’s Rebel Without a Cause-- the both-defect outcome would have had both drivers going over the cliff with their cars).
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But what later game theorists discovered was even more astonishing. It turns out that if the game is iterated -- played over and over again -- the ultimate outcomes do a complete reversal. If two players face each other year after year, generation after generation, they build up a reputation, right? Well, if the Prisoner’s Dilemma is played with an equivalent, the best strategy turns out to be a cooperative one.

Why? This is at the heart of Nonzero: cooperation is a non-zero game, so “wealth” accumulates (actually, his book should have been titled “Positive”, since he really is emphasizing the beneficent side of this stuff -- but that really wouldn’t be very catchy, would it?) Non-cooperation is, at best, a zero-sum game so wealth simply transfers from hand to hand (although parasitism and war are destructive enough that they will typically be negative-sum).

What The Evolution of Cooperation showed in its latter chapters was that the ultimately best strategy was something called tit-for-tat : play “nice” the first time, then in each subsequent transaction, do to your opponent what they did to you the last time around. Period. (Well, kinda -- a bit more below). By playing nice the first time, if your opponent also plays nice and follows this strategy you’ll remain forever in a bliss of productive cooperation. If they screw you, you will punish them in precisely the same amount and they’ll learn that it doesn’t pay.

Of course, there is that problem of endless retribution. If the other team defects once and only once, the two players get into a cycle where they take turns punishing each other. So it turns out the best strategy is actually generous tit-for-tat, where occasionally you “forgive” your opponent and try to sync up again in benevolent counterplay. (But not often or predictably enough that you can be taken advantage of).

Axelrod’s thin book showed that this tit-for-tat effect was so strong that it happens naturally in evolution, without any need for communication or even the ability to communicate. He pointed out that some units on the opposites sides in WWI evolved a timed way of fighting that minimized casualties on both sides until the generals came along and put an end to the lack of bloodshed. (I think he also pointed out that term limits in elected officials would limit cooperation between parties and create additional gridlock in legislatures, although I may have found that one elsewhere). More recently researchers have found that some fish species exhibit tit-for-tat behavior when cooperating in hazardous activity (inspecting whether larger fish are feeling predatory).


That cooperation is a naturally evolving trait has stunning implications, and this is what Wright explores, and why this book is somewhat important. If you want to understand the theoretical aspects of how cooperation is crucial to civilization, read Wright’s book.


Unfortunately, I’d already gotten that message. What I was looking for was a more detailed examination of how certain parts of our psyches and societies may have developed in light of this revelation. For example, the notorious Arab saying “Me against my brother, me and my brother against our cousin, me, my brother and my cousin against the stranger.” Or, a more proper hierarchy: “Me against my brother, me and my brother against our cousin, me, my brother and my cousin against the village, our village against the village across the valley, this valley against the valley on the other side of the mountain…” ad naseum. (Science fiction readers will be familiar with the trope that an alien presence would instantly obliterate most human divisiveness). In other words, the formation of Social Identity theory is implied -- so where is the discussion?

In small villages, it is possible to know everyone by reputation. What happens when people become anonymous in cities? Reputation is often not available, so the default behavior should drop back to the default defection of Prisoner’s Dilemma. Quite visible in anonymous chat rooms on the internet, of course. How might crime be related to this? Several times I’ve been on city buses and witnessed teens climbing on (without paying, of course), tagging the bus with graffiti and walking away. Would they be doing this if the bus was full of people they’d be interacting with the rest of their lives?

But often in “real life” we can see moral behavior collapse into, at best, legalistic behavior. If reputations can’t be tracked reliably, then self-governance via shame or guilt becomes irrelevant and only external coercion matters. Luckily millions of generations of evolution under which “generous tit-for-tat” was the survivor’s game means it became to a large extent instinctive. We tend to like cooperating because it agrees with the whispered advice of those ancestors. What does that mean with respect to religion?


Wright spends his time on is the Pollyanna-ish view that cooperation evolves naturally, and thus will always win in the long run, and we’ll all be very happy if we just have patience (okay, a gross simplification).

But he misses how cooperation only evolves in the presence of reputational information, and how that is often missing in our dense cities and our overpopulated world.

I’m still waiting for the book that explores this.
(less)
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Apr 11, 2011Szplug rated it liked it · review of another edition
Nonzero presents the type of reading eventuality that drives me to despair: a book eagerly imbibed some six or seven years ago—and recommended afterwards to a handful of friends—of which today, dredge the polluted and choppy canals of my memory though I might, produces but a hazy, shimmery image from which can be recollected naught other than an attractive blue, yellow and white cover, the authorial handle (one frequently confused with Richard of the shared surname), and a minute, fleshless skeletal stab at summation: to whit, that of a humanity which, under the auspices of best-of-all-possible-choices Game Theory Cooperation and erector-set Complexity, ascends the rungs of history as an entity of increasing organization and adaptability, able to abut, survey, and surmount the variety of evolutionary obstacles put in place by a stochastic and ofttimes hostile world of mostly limited resources and nigh limitless information in all of its variegated and layered encodings; other than that, bupkis. There is a lingering, vague sense that the examples were numerous and convincing, and yet somehow a tad too convenient or forced or abstract to reach that level of persuasion that might turn a reader into a believer. The ridiculous thing is, I still would encourage others to give it a try whilst being unable to provide them with the details of what, exactly, I am pushing on them. To have read and then forgotten is a terribly sad thing. (less)
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Aug 26, 2017Mehrsa rated it it was amazing · review of another edition
I will never understand why people don't like this book on here. I read this one after evolution of God and the Moral animal and still found it fascinating. Wright knows how to write! The story of cultural evolution from zero-sum to non-zero sum is fascinating. There are obviously plenty of counter examples, but as he says "follow the meme" not the individual cultures. So while America might be building walls, the meme of democracy and egalitarianism will survive. This is like Pinker's better angles of our nature, but Pinker was so wrong about so much in the blank slate, that I would say skip all Pinker and just read Wright. (less)
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Mar 15, 2011Darwin8u rated it really liked it · review of another edition
Shelves: 2011
I probably did Wright a huge disservice by reading his books essentially backwards. I hit NonZero and was like, yeah yeah yeah, read all this before. Anyway, I love the ideas he flushes out with: NonZero, Moral Animal, Evolution of God, etc. For me a lot of it rings very very true. I love how much of Wright's thinking is similar to Philo of Alexandria...

"He [God] has made none of these particular things complete in itself, so that it should have no need at all of other things. Thus through the desire to obtain what it needs, it must perforce approach that which can supply its needs, and this approach must be mutual and reciprocal. Thus through reciprocity and combination ... God meant that they should come to fellowship and concord and form a single harmony, and that a universal give and take should govern them, and lead up to the consumption of the whole world." - Philo of Alexandria.

Amen to Philo and Amen to Wright. (less)
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Jun 18, 2014Miles rated it liked it · review of another edition
This book came to my attention by way of David Brin, who claims it as mandatory reading for anyone interested in saving the world. I’m not sure if I’d go that far, but the assertion that positive sum games play a critical role in biological and cultural evolution is definitely significant, especially insofar as it carves out a space for balance between competition and cooperation in discussions about evolutionary development. If pointing out this interesting facet of natural selection were Wright’s only goal, he might have written a better book. Unfortunately, Wright insists that positive sum games reveal not only that nature proceeds in a certain direction (plausible), but also that such directionality, enabled and amplified by positive sum relationships, imbues human life with meaning and purpose (problematic). The result is a blend of brilliance and atavism; Wright’s insightful, progressive vision is ultimately dampened by his adherence to one of humanity’s oldest misconceptions: purpose and meaning are properties of the universe itself, rather than features of experiential narratives generated by the human body.

This book is a predecessor to Ted Chu’s Human Purpose and Transhuman Potential, which also makes the case that evolution is both directional and demonstrative of the universe’s inherent meaningfulness. Chu’s book is more thorough, far-reaching, and contemporary (it was published 15 years after Nonzero), but he essentially takes the baton from Wright without significantly altering the message. Additionally, both thinkers insist on clinging to notions of divinity that are almost entirely incompatible with their scientific worldviews.

Let’s begin with Wright’s least controversial claim: evolution gives nature a direction, with biological (and cultural) systems tending to become more complex and interconnected over time. This directionality flows from the second law of thermodynamics (entropy), which dictates that energy systems always tend toward equilibrium, a state of chemical inertness where no life can thrive. In the grand scale of things, entropy can never be overcome, but organisms can stave off its effects through efficient organization of matter and nutrients. The more complex, efficient, and adaptable the organism, the longer it can survive. Over time, simple organisms group together in adaptive, mutually beneficial arrangements that extend the lifespan of all constituents––hence the progression from unicellular organisms to increasingly robust multicellular life.

Wright effectively argues that this pattern is descriptive not just of organic evolution, but also of human cultural evolution. History demonstrates that positive sum relationships between human groups ultimately outlast bellicose tribalism and subjugation. That doesn’t mean myriad zero-sum games are not brutally playing themselves out at any given point in history (they always are), but it does mean that, over time, civilization favors win-win arrangements over zero-sum games. There are numerous historical examples that, when taken in isolation, seem to contradict this point of view, but I’m willing to agree with Wright and others (such as Steven Pinker) that progress is real and the world truly has become safer––evenbetter––in recent epochs (at least for humans).

So, great, let’s give ourselves a big pat on the back and return to the project of trying to solve existing problems, which are multifarious and demand further adaptation, moral imagination, and a commitment to rooting out and bolstering as many positive sum relationships as possible. The problem with the nonzero approach, as I see it, is that it’s both easy and common for two or more parties to arrange a positive sum game in which everyone involved benefits but others do not. When an American company outsources jobs overseas, it’s win-win for the business owners and third-world workers who get access to better jobs and wages, but American middle class workers are left in the lurch. When Uber enables independent drivers and smartphone users to connect at unprecedented speeds for a competitive price, cab drivers who’ve spent many years and dollars getting licensed lose business.

There are plenty of examples of how certain nonzero relationships can be seen as zero-sum if you’re the person getting the fuzzy end of the lollypop. Wright’s answer to this problem is practical and level-headed: since the driving forces behind globalization are so powerful, we shouldn’t buy the argument that regulating new technologies will stifle innovation or destroy markets. We can’t stop technological progress, but we can slow it down at times in order to minimize its most detrimental effects. Revenue will still flow, tinkerers will still tinker, and the next killer app will still get made if we make rules about how quickly or in what fashion companies and governments can exercise their considerable power to put people out of work and/or cut off social services. In fact, helping populations through times of transition is the best way of allowing progress to continue: “The only thing with much chance of stalling globalization for any length of time is the very chaotic backlash––from the angry and disgruntled––that a slight slowdown might avert” (234). It is refreshing to get such a reasonable and sensitive perspective from someone who might otherwise be accused to shrugging his shoulders at the worst results of creative destruction and muttering, “Well, that’s the price of progress.”

While I agree with Wright that “To stop technical progress is to reserve a place in the dustbin of history,” I think his book (and others by similar thinkers) lacks a serious discussion about human quality of life (196). Wright has much to say about grand historical trends, global brains, and ways that technical innovation has generated win-win relationships, but he’s surprisingly mute when it comes to human fulfillment or flourishing. And while it’s true that “Literature is nice, but putting food on the table is nicer,” I balk a bit at his attitude that art doesn’t play a significant role in human progress (145). In all its forms, art is crucial for human self-expression and -actualization, and is also our primary means of encapsulating the richness of human experience to share it with others. I’ll concede that I don’t starve because of technology, but only if I can also insist that my heart soars because of art. My desire to keep living would decline drastically if I were wrenched away from the plethora of narratives (real and fictional) I explore in solitude and with loved ones. That which makes life possible doesn’t always make it meaningful.

This brings us to Wright’s final blunder, which is really a pair of blunders. The first is Wright’s bizarre characterization of consciousness through a woefully inapt thought experiment. Wright asks the reader to imagine a world that seems just like ours, with people who look and act just as we do, only they have no consciousness (i.e. no internal experience of sensations, emotions, or reflections). “Such a world,” Wright contends, “would lackmoral meaning…it would offer no context in which words such as ‘right’ and ‘wrong’ made sense” (321). This is nonsense. As with many thought experiments, such a world is completely incompatible with what we know about how intelligent organisms are structured. Consciousness is a gradient––animals have it, but to a lesser degree than humans, especially when it comes our big superpowers: symbol manipulation and future projection. Any creature that possesses a sufficiently complex system of bio-feedback loops and neural networks will have some form of consciousness; it’s a necessary tool that enables massive conglomerations of highly specialized cells to aggregate sense data and guide the “boat” away from rocky shores, which would ruin the game of life for everyone. So if you happened on a world in which people acted just as we do, with all our nuance, quirkiness, and pettiness, the only logical conclusion would be that those people were fully conscious. It’s the old “if it acts like a duck and quacks like a duck…” problem, and the same goes for humans. Wright’s “human-like zombies” give the impression that a brain could be fully functional without producing the experience of mind, which is impossible as far as we know.

Wright’s determination to link a flawed understanding of consciousness with evolution’s directionality forces him into an awkward mysticism:

That biological evolution has an arrow––the invention of more structurally and informationally complex forms of life––and that this arrow points toward meaning, isn’t, of course, proof of the existence of God. But it’s more suggestive of divinity than an alternative world would be: a world in which evolution had no direction, or a world with directional evolution but no consciousness. (323)

Because he does not view consciousness as a necessary, emergent property of directional evolution, Wright jumps to the conclusion that consciousness’s existence is “suggestive of divinity.” But why? And what “meaning” does directional evolution point toward? Evolution’s directionality––to the extent that it exists––is just a fact of life, not some revelatory link to the world’s inherent meaning or some divine being’s intentions. Wright has forgotten to apply Occam’s Razor; instead of choosing the simpler explanation (consciousness is a natural property of sufficiently complex brains), he clings to a quasi-supernatural definition of consciousness: “Consciousness––the fact that it is like something to be alive––[is] a profound and possibly eternal mystery, and a suggestive one to say the least. And divinity isn’t the only thing it suggests” (331). To be fair, some scientists seem to think the jury is still out on whether or not the existence of consciousness implicates divinity or some other metaphysical force, but I’m not holding my breath.

Wright’s second concluding blunder is the book’s strikingly misguided final flourish:

In the end, this is the best argument for higher purpose: that the history of life on earth is too good a story not to have been written. But, whether or not you believe the story indeed has a cosmic author, one thing seems clear: it is our story. As its lead characters, we can’t escape its implications. (334)

I can accept Wright’s softer arguments that a few of history’s broadest trends were “destined” (the rise of positive sum games among them), but I heartily reject the notion that our story was just too awesome “not to have been written.” This reads like the puerile musings of an aging autocrat who, looking back on his illustrious legacy (i.e. decades of tyranny), convinces himself that it just couldn’t have happened any other way. This is arrogance of cosmic proportions, with meaning written in the stars and deciphered by clever astronomers, Wright’s “lead characters.”

Why spring for cheap romanticism when truly stirring notions are close at hand? Instead of portraying nonzero thinking as a special key to understanding the universe’s underlying purpose, why not bask in the glory of being the only existing creature (as far as we know) capable of creatingthought systems of complexity and scope, of using everything at our disposal, from biological gifts to technological marvels, to generate ideas and stories that reconstruct the past, throw perspective on the present, and grasp at a better future?

Wright hasn’t exposed the true meaning hidden under the universe’s insouciant guise, but he has created a thought-provoking and worthwhile book. In the end, the importance of positive sum thinking for solving modern problems is enough to forgive Wright’s unjustified extravagance. Having paid a few dollars for the experience of reading Nonzero, I think reader and writer both came out on top.

This review was originally published on my blog, words&dirt. (less)
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Jun 12, 2014Warren B rated it it was ok · review of another edition
I actually loved the theory put forth about a non-zero-sum world in which humanity continually moves toward a more peaceful and unified existence as we grow larger and more complex. I even very much agree with many of assertions and predictions; however, for a book to purport to be scientific in its conclusions there is way too much soft science here, and many of Mr. Wright's conclusions seem to come by way of intuition and historical cherry picking.

Even with that said I did actually enjoy this book. It's full of enticing ideas and some great sources are referenced in some places (i.e Telihard de Chardin ect.). The book presents a very positive and optimistic view for the world moving forward and I hope that Wright's "gut" is right on, but the book is presented as an anthropological study in game theory, and for that it misses very wide of the mark. (less)
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Jul 14, 2009Holly Foley (Procida) rated it it was amazing · review of another edition
Shelves: adult-non-fiction
This is probably one the most challenging and rewarding books I have read in a long time. Robert Wright must be a brilliant researcher to have organized the amount of topics and references that he gathered to support his theories in this book. It provided an amazing perspective of the progression through time of human civilization. I teach a world civilization class and most of the concepts in this book are WAY too complicated for my students (6th grade) BUT it gives me many exciting examples and thoughts to use in class. (less)
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Feb 04, 2016Joseph Raffetto rated it really liked it · review of another edition
Shelves: nonfiction
Nonzero and zero game theories are two crucial concepts that everyone, particularly those in government, should always consider. Loved this book for making those two concepts clear in my mind.
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Nov 05, 2017Jan Pomianowski rated it it was amazing · review of another edition
Mandatory reading for every human being on the planet.

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Dec 24, 2017Tejas Kulkarni rated it really liked it · review of another edition
- This book is about principles underlying cultural evolution and makes a lot of radical claims. The main thesis of the book is to investigate whether evolution (genetic and cultural) has a purpose, direction or goal. The author says yes using the logic of non-zero-sum games, where all parties involve (mostly) mutually benefit as opposed to zero-sum games.

- One way to predict the future of evolution is to retroactively inspect the history of the biosphere to understand the present moment. How did social complexity arise? Other than basic drives like thirst, hunger and sex, high level pressures like social status must have given a big impetus. After all, as the book argues, one way to compete successfully is to invent technologies that create new non-zero-sum games. Such games create the basis for human and animal cooperation. A natural question is how do zero-sum games that are prevalent in our society, like war and capitalistic companies, lead to non-zero-sum games? There are compelling arguments about the interplay of these games as I will discuss later. This is also directly tied to the interplay of human cooperation and conflict.

- There are plenty of historical examples, most notably the cultural evolution of Northwest Coast Indians. These societies had 'Big Men' in charge of managing supplies, putting sanctions on the timing of fishing, bartering goods with neighboring 'Big Men' and so on. This social organization directly contributed to non-zero-sum-ness, as the risk associated with food production and safety became more distributed.

- So why did some hunting-gathering societies gather more wealth and non-zero-sum-ness than others? Was it surplus of resources. It does not seem so. Robert Carneiro published a paper about Kuikuru, who inhabited the jungles of Amazonia and tended gardens for manioc, a staple food and source of tapioca. This society could have easily tripled the production of manioc but they preferred leisure time. In general, for them and many other similar societies, surplus did not equal economic development. In order to scale human cooperation, there needs to be availability of cheap transportation, communication and density of population. These are the key enablers for facilitating nonzero sum games.

- What about war? The author argues that war isn't non stop zero sum ness. "Even as war inserts zero-sum dynamics between two groups, within the groups things are quite different. If your village is beset by axe-wielding men bent on slaughter, your relations with fellow villagers can pivot quickly towards the non-zero-sum; action in concert you may fend off the assault, but divided you will likely fall".

- The author makes many more historical arguments of the principle of non-zero-sum games as the basic driving force behind cultural evolution via progress in technological evolution (via maximizing information exchange). In the second half of the book, this principle is used to explain why for instance China was not the driving force behind the first industrial revolution. It might have been due to the Ming dynasty, which reigned until 1644, and aggressively pushed forward with an isolationist foreign policy. In turn choosing to play a more zero-sum game with everyone else.

- In the very final parts of the book, things start getting extremely speculative but interesting. If non-zero-sum-ness is the basic principle underlying social and biosphere evolution, then one can imagine meta-evolution strategies to evolve such non zero sum games. Under this view, the entire biosphere can be thought of as a giant organism (see the Gaia hypothesis that draws similar conclusions). However there are practical and meta physical problems. If it took 3 billion years for the earth organism to evolve, then there really hasn't been many evolutionary trials since the beginning of big bang. And for this to be true, the first seed of life must be confirmed to come via meteorites or other related cosmic mechanisms. Regardless, its an interesting idea to ponder.

- The book closes by relating the triumph of non-zero-sum-ness to the expansion of humanity's moral compass. Where is this taking us? Perhaps towards the equal moral status of all human beings.


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Aug 22, 2017Kim Hammel rated it it was amazing · review of another edition
Fantastic book. This talks about Bin Laden and Al Queda long before 9-11. Sadly, his predictions for the future were not correct, and he likely didn't plan on the US having G.W.Bush in the White House who reacted with anger, rather than logic. We are still engaged in the longest running war in our nation's history because of Afghanistan and subsequently Iraq.
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Oct 23, 2017Mckinley rated it it was ok · review of another edition
Shelves: sci-for-non-sci, non-fiction
Pseudo-science meets a sort of cultural anthropology.
Non-zero: things work best when all players get some benefit.
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Nov 24, 2014Gerrit rated it it was ok · review of another edition
Shelves: history
The book develops the interesting thesis that evolution tends to develop towards increasing complexity. It forces you to consider cultural and biological evolution from a different perspective. In the end though, the book is disappointing because much salient information is simply omitted and some facts are very unconvincingly massaged into the posited trend. The final part of the book, proposing natural selection shows signs of (intelligent) design suffers from misrepresentation of others' arguments and semantic tricks and should probably be ignored.

The first part of Nonzero deals with cultural evolution. It reviews how non-zero sum interactions between (groups of) people stimulate the development of larger scale more highly organised societies. So pervasive is the power of our species exploitation of such interactions that this trend is, according to Wright a hallmark of human culture and visible throughout human history. On the very large scale this, in hindsight, is true. Nonzero suggests that cases where this development is not visible represent exceptions that do not detract from this thesis.

Although such works necessarily sketch human history with a broad brush, the topic that I'm most familiar with - hunter-gatherer archaeology - suffers from selective treatment and, sometimes, wishful thinking. The Mesolithic to my knowledge does not represent a slow but steady increase in population sizes and societal complexity. To some degree one might suggest that in Central Europe the Upper Palaeolithic represented a more complex kind of society.


The perspective taken on the origin and spread of farming is refreshing. It was simply a good idea, likely to develop in forager societies dependent on their surroundings for food. No extraneous cause other than human needs and our tendency to compete for status need to be invoked. I can sympathise with this view, especially regarding the uptake of farming by hunter-gatherers in Central and NW Europe. Farming then leads to ever larger states, ever better information technologies (writing, money) and ever greater interactions between different peoples spurring on technological developments. Currently, according to Wright, our interdependence is so great and the potential gains from our non-zero-interactions so great that our evolution will continue to lead us to the formation of supranational forms of government. This is aided by the increasing informational connectivity of our world (that simultaneously also empowers sectarian groups).

The second part of the book states that biological evolution exhibits a similar trend towards increasing complexity based on the increase in nonzero interactions between (groups of) genes. The interesting perspective adopted of the differential reproduction of genes as an information "technology" works well for these chapters. The review of some mechanisms such as arms races as leading to increasing complexity is quite convincing. Again though important arguments against his idea of natural selection inherently leading to ever greater complexity are ignored. What about the argument that in some circumstances simplicity works better, perhaps having led to the development of viruses from more complex forms? Similarly the fact that useful features such as eyes and flying independently developed multiple times is cited in support of the thesis, yet the fact that they also disappeared independently multiple times when no longer needed is not mentioned.

Finally the book argues that the evolution of consciousness may be used to suggest that evolution itself has a (benevolent) purpose. This argument rests on the writer's contention that modern behavioural science implicitly states that consciousness doesn't do anything. Some posited functions by others are stated by the writer to be incomprehensible, leading to his preference for the non-functionality of consciousness. As I understand it, consciousness does have its uses in the reproduction of our genes, even if it often functions as a post-hoc rationalisation of one's actions. This may still lead to a re-evaluation of actions taken in a specific situation allowing individuals to develop effective heuristic rules to aid in making behavioural choices. Even if consciousness were nonfunctional one would still have to exclude the possibility that it evolved as the byproduct of our increasingly powerful brain. This invalidates the writers next step suggesting that, since we are conscious where automata would have sufficed, some sort of benevolent guidance underlies evolution. The final part makes the whole book highly disappointing. (less)
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Sep 08, 2014David added it · review of another edition
Shelves: science, society-politics
Not sure how to rate it.

The book has three section, related to:
1) changes over time in human societies (structure, complexity, production, etc.)
2) changes over time in Earth's life-forms (evolutionary aspects)
3) whether (1) and (2) suggest a divine goal or purpose

Section (1) is the largest part of the book. I kept thinking he's making good points, dispelling some myths - but at the same time he's skimming over or overlooking other aspects. I have no problem seeing hunter-gatherers as wanting fair reciprocity, rather than imagining them being selfless altruists. I can accept that ancient slavery increased a society's total wealth, and sooner or later a fraction of that wealth did make it's way down to society's poor. But the author more or less equates the logic of the two (fair reciprocity and the highly disproportionate gains in class societies). [There are sporadic points he does speak negatively of the abuses of class societies.] Perhaps, the kind of mass production found in ancient slavery would not have been instituted by the cooperative action of free individuals - but the author doesn't attempt to make such an argument to justify slavery in a human species with an inherent desire for fair reciprocity. The author's inattention or disinterest in clarifying these conflicting dynamics in the economic progress of humanity makes me wonder what other conclusions might be drawn if they were included in the equation. Also, how do early societies go from individuals who have priorities for themselves and those closest to them but peer pressure maintains a proximity to fair reciprocity to societies with a "big men" or "chief" who combines ruthless selfishness with just enough sharing to prevent rebellion? With essentially no discussion, the author brushes aside a theory that these ruthless leaders are "bad men" despite various aspects of the actions making them sound like psychopaths. We know there are such individuals as psychopaths in society today, and we know they are more concentrated in higher positions in society. This could explain why most humans want fair reciprocity, but early elites, slaveholders, etc. show so little empathy for those actually laboring to produce that wealth for others. If there is such a distinction, there seems to be an inherent conflict within human society which could come to a head at some point. That could have been a valuable discussion even if one disagreed with the author's conclusions.

A disproportionate part of section (2) seemed to be a critique of certain arguments by Stephen Jay Gould, although the author never claims Gould's and his views are essentially the only options in the field.

In the third section, the author doesn't claim there is sufficient evidence to say there was a conscious plan / goal behind the evolution of life and society, but he considers it suggestive. It will seem significant to believers, but there seems little for those who aren't looking to bolster an already-held view they've otherwise seen little to support in the real world.
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Apr 25, 2009Ed rated it it was amazing · review of another edition
Recommends it for: Anyone who has a shred of curiosity about the world around them
Recommended to Ed by: Joe Cutcliffe
Shelves: history, essays-politics-science-religion, reviewed, non-fiction
This is another of those rare non-fiction "I couldn't put it down" books.

Using Game Theory, Wright develops a theory of Cultural Evolution that gives rise to optimism, while not ignoring those things that could go wrong. However, if history is any guide, the increasing complexity of human culture has always moved Homo Sapiens closer and closer to a culture of mutual collaboration and reciprocal altruism to the point that we might look forward to a global culture that would make war even more of ...more
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Jul 25, 2014Jan rated it did not like it · review of another edition
Thought provoking (generally thoughts of 'how could this selective interpretation be taken seriously by a publisher). Couldn't finish it, after battling for 250 pages. Premise: world history basically follows a pattern that produces the best for everyone. The world also apparently stands 'at its moral zenith to date'. With 85% of the world without adequate food, shelter and security, whilst the other 15% spend money on gastric bands and diabetes operations? Apparently all workers receive a decen ...more
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Sep 08, 2012Nilesh rated it liked it · review of another edition
The book suffers from strong preconceived conclusions. They diminish many other good messages.

The concepts of cultural evolution and arc of history are good by themselves. Progress is defined - roughly - as ever quicker and cheaper movements of ideas and matter. Evolution of complexity in human affairs and their role in humanity's ever widening reach (in all sense) make a good theory. Author uses countless examples as he goes along in the first two-third of the book while explaining the thesis and they all keep the reading interesting and pleasurable.

Yet, the predisposition to conclude strongly optimistically and create revisionist views of past to be able to arrive at such forecasts destroy so many other good things. The author appears almost fatalistic in trying to prove that human society was always expected to progress to the current point and is destined to move to the greater things. Inidrectly, the message is that if anything else were to happen (say humans end up blowing up the globe through pollution or bomb), the entire natural and cultural selection would prove so useless.

To be fair, the author did not say as above, but the needless predictions are roughly based on this type of arguments. The book's digression towards the end to completely new topics - including a quick summary of natural evolution, the question of God, humanity as an organism etc - is pointless and too superficial, even though like all else in the book is interesting and with some fresh tales/views. (less)
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Feb 13, 2011Avi Roy rated it did not like it · review of another edition
This book exemplifies the unexacting/facile epistemological underpinning of social sciences as compared to the natural/hard sciences. Almost every hypothesis in this book is a "just so" story backed by non-falsifiable/cherry-picked historical data, and masked (ever so slightly) in the technicality of game theory. I do understand that it is hard to run an empirical experiment on history, but neither should we rely on it for high probability future outcome. The author does have some interesting wisps of an idea here and there scattered around the book, but these are generally lost in the tiresome monologue.

I do agree with the authors conclusion regarding the amplification of non-zero sum interactions (co-operation) without the requirement of zero-sum threats (war), but I would have derived this via examples of evolutionary molecular and macro-molecular dynamics. In the last few chapters, the author does indeed invoke natural science and evolution towards elucidating his conjecture, but these chapters overall fall flat due to constantly comparing molecular events (flagella drive) with there "just so" macro counterpart (tribal relocation by chief). In summary, any half-witted university student (in discussions with his/her friends) should be able to reach all the same conclusion as the author, without having to read 450 pages. (less)