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2021/05/19

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Energy groups must stop new oil and gas projects to reach net zero by 2050, IEA says

Energy groups must stop new oil and gas projects to reach net zero by 2050, IEA says
Radical move would have to be compensated by huge investment in clean energy

https://www.ft.com/content/2bf04fff-5b2f-4d96-a4ea-ff55e029f18e?shareType=nongift&fbclid=IwAR3H8RxsnUD_Zh-UuumLRoH1jzY2mQhPiwA5swQvw5var0HRtbfepBg2Xsc

A stark report from the IEA lays bare the challenge to achieving net zero emissions by 2050 © Andrey Rudakov/Bloomberg

Leslie Hook and Anjli Raval in London YESTERDAY507Print this page

Energy groups must stop all new oil and gas exploration projects from this year if global warming is to be kept in check, the International Energy Agency said.

The proposal is part of a scenario outlined in a report on ways to achieve net zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050, a prerequisite to meet the Paris climate accord goal of limiting global warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.

Aside from drastically cutting fossil fuel consumption, an unprecedented jump in spending on low carbon technologies would also be required — around $5tn in energy investments per year by 2030, up from around $2tn today, the report said.

“We need a historical surge in investment,” said Fatih Birol, head of Paris-based IEA on Tuesday, adding that this would add 0.4 per cent annually to GDP growth. “The bulk of it needs to be in clean energy.”

The IEA’s Net Zero report comes as the institution founded in 1974 as the oil watchdog for Western countries has faced pressure from climate activists to produce a road map to the target.

It details an overhaul of energy supply and demand whereby coal demand would plunge by 90 per cent, gas demand would halve and oil demand would shrink nearly 75 per cent by 2050.

Dave Jones, analyst at the climate think-tank Ember, said the report’s call to halt new oil and gas exploration was extremely surprising given the agency’s history.

“I don’t think anyone expected this from the IEA. It is a huge turnround on their part,” he said. “It has been very pro-fossil, so to come out with something like this is just amazing . . . This is truly a knife in the fossil fuel industry.”

The majority of the global economy is subject to some form of net zero emissions target, which means eliminating virtually all carbon dioxide emissions and compensating for the rest through carbon removal programmes.

While the report is not a forecast or a recommendation, the IEA’s scenarios are considered definitive by many governments and often form the basis for energy policy.

As more governments, including the UK, EU and China, pledge to cut emissions to net zero, the IEA report spells out how challenging it will be to get there. “It is a pathway which is narrow,” said Birol. “But still achievable.”

Many big oil companies and producing countries, such as those within Opec, have long argued that investment in new fossil fuel projects had to continue to meet the needs of emerging economies in Asia and Africa.

However, the IEA’s modelled reduction in fossil fuel consumption is far more severe than most producers have prepared for. The share of fossil fuels in the global energy supply would need to fall from around four-fifths currently to one-fifth by 2050. Solar would become the single biggest energy source — or 20 per cent of global energy demand.

A petrochemical plant: oil demand would have to shrink by 90% by 2050, says the IEA © Nathan Laine/Bloomberg

“Those countries whose economies are relying on oil and gas revenues will face huge challenges,” said Birol. “We came up with over 400 milestones, and one of them is — there is no need for new oil, gas and coal development, which includes no need for oil and gas exploration investments.”

Royal Dutch Shell’s chief executive Ben van Beurden, speaking at the company’s annual shareholder meeting on Tuesday, said there should be a focus on consumption and not production to reduce emissions.

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Though Shell has already ruled out exploring and drilling for oil in new areas after 2025, van Beurden said that “another company can come in and develop these resources.” He added that the company would continue to drill in established areas, such as the Gulf of Mexico, to meet demand.

The IEA acknowledged that “continued investment in existing sources of oil production are needed”. And, even while oil demand declines, the share of oil production controlled by Opec will increase, from around 37 per cent to around 52 per cent in 2050, according to the report.

It envisions carbon-free electricity globally by 2040, along with a surge in research funding over the next decade for new technologies such as batteries and hydrogen electrolysers.

Joeri Rogelj, lecturer in climate change at Imperial College, called the IEA’s net zero scenario hugely significant.

Improvements in energy efficiency mean that global energy demand in 2050 will be around 8 per cent smaller than it is today, even though the world economy will be twice as big. Electricity use will grow, accounting for around half of total energy consumption by 2050.

“The IEA is used as a de facto benchmark for a lot of the planning, both by governments and industry,” said Rogelj, who had called on the IEA to develop a net zero scenario.

Previous IEA scenarios had been heavily criticised for failing to include enough renewables, and underestimating the rate at which solar and wind power world grow.

“If you look back over the past decade, the IEA scenarios have always been lagging a bit,” said Rogelj. “The IEA is simply a slow, grey, rusty, dusty machine, and it just takes a while . . . but I am really happy to see the IEA has now arrived at a net zero pathway.”

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최준영 농대나온 남자.. 최고의 동남아 농업전문가이신 남재작 소장님

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최준영

fn1tg3e MrhSaiSpyonh anlt us1osg3g:08ored

농대나온 남자..

저는 조경학과를 나왔습니다. 조경학과는 대학마다 다르지만 서울대학교의 경우 농과대학, 지금의 농업생명과학대학에 속해 있습니다. '종합과학예술'이라는 조경을 전공하는 학과가 왜 농대에 있는지 오랫동안 궁금했습니다. 

지금은 관악으로 이전했지만 제가 학교를 다닐때는 수원 서둔동에 캠퍼스가 있었습니다. 위로 전투기가 날아다니고, 학교주변은 앞쪽에는 낙후된 동네와 넓은 논이 자리잡고 뒤편으로는  목장과 수목원으로 이루어져 있는 그런 곳이 었습니다. 오래되고 낡은 건물들은 잘 가꾸어진 울창한 나무들과 참 대조적으로 우중충했습니다. 도서관 옆 수의대 근처에는 커다란 이불만큼 옆구리를 꿰멘 소들이 보이곤 했습니다. 학부와 대학원을 다니면서 수원캠퍼스도, 농대도 참 마음에 들지 않았습니다. 더 근본적으로는 '농업'이라는 사양산업과 함께 있다는 것이 싫었던 것 같습니다. 

그런데 신기하게도 학위를 받고 졸업하고, 직장생활을 시작하면서 묘하게 농업이라는 분야에 대해 관심과 애정이 커지는 경험을 하게 되었습니다. 다시 생각해봐도 특별한 계기도 없었는데 가랑비에 옷 젖듯이 그렇게 농업에 관심을 가지게 되었습니다. 학창시절 애써 거리를 두고 무시했던데 대한 마음의 빚이었을까요? 

지구본연구소에서 미얀마 이야기를 하다보니 자연스럽게 '쌀'이야기를 하게 되었는데  '모작과 기작도 구별 못하냐', '쌀농사가 아니라 벼농사라고 해야한다'..등등의 댓글이 달렸습니다. 농대나온 남자로서 기분이, 자존심이 팍 상하더군요.  그러다 곰곰 생각해보니 정작 제대로 아는 것이 별로 없다는 것을 알게 되었습니다. 

그래서 제가 아는 최고의  동남아 농업전문가이신 남재작 소장님께 연락을 드렸습니다. 취지를 말씀드렸더니 선뜻 응해주셨습니다. 그렇게 해서 때아닌 '동남아 쌀농사'편이 등장하게 되었습니다. 

많은 준비를 해 주셨는데 처음으로 진행을 하다보니 준비해주신 만큼의 내용을 잘담아내지 못한것 같아 녹화후에 계속 마음이 찜찜했습니다. 그렇지만 남재작 소장님께서 차분차분 풀어내 주신 이야기가 풍부하고 좋았기에 많은 분들께서 열광적으로 호응해 주셨습니다. (댓글이 풍년입니다. 얼쑤~)농사와 농업에 대해 이렇게 관심이 많을줄은 몰랐습니다. 남 소장님과 함께 앞으로 여러차례 더 이야기를 해야할 것 같은 분위기 입니다. 

농대나온 남자로서 마음 저 구석에 있던 빚을 조금이나마 갚은 것 같습니다.

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진정한 선진국 사업인 농업, 땅넓고 잘자라는 동남아 벼농사가 어려운 이유 #지구본연구소

세상의 모든 일이 궁금한 호기심대마왕 최준영 박사와 함께 떠나보는 지구본 여행#지구본연구소 #최준영박사